Monday , October 13, 2025: Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD
EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- General Trend: Bearish.
- Today's Support Points for EUR/USD: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
- Today's Resistance Points for EUR/USD: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1820.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1490, with a target of 1.1730 and a stop loss at 1.1400.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Investor confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset was renewed following Trump's threat to impose harsh tariffs on China starting next month, despite the ongoing US government shutdown now in its third week. This increased sell orders on the EUR/USD pair last week, with losses extending to the 1.1542 support level, near the pair's two-month low, before it closed the week stable around the 1.1622 level. Today, given the American holiday, the EUR/USD is expected to trade within a narrow range with a downward bias, hovering around and below the 1.1600 support level.
The current trading scenario for the EUR/USD is bearish, according to the daily chart performance on reliable trading platforms. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to a reading of 37, well below the neutral line, confirming that bears are back in control of the trend. This important technical indicator is now settling around a reading of 42, awaiting further selling pressure before heading towards oversold territory. Similarly, the MACD indicator lines are positioned downwards. There will be no opportunity for EUR/USD bulls to take control of prices without returning to and stabilizing above the 1.1800 resistance level once again.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp trader, anticipate fresh selling pressure on the currency pair. Therefore, we advise against rushing to buy now and to consider doing so from stronger downward levels, but never take undue risks. Today, we may witness limited movements due to the American holiday.
EUR/USD Forecast for the Coming Months
In this regard, according to currency trading experts at Danske Bank, the euro has been subjected to renewed selling pressure amid the ongoing French political crisis, with the EUR/USD exchange rate falling to around 1.1600. In the near term, Danske Bank sees a relatively balanced outlook for the US dollar. The bank sees a potential for a weaker US dollar if the US government shutdown continues and maintains its negative long-term outlook for the dollar, with the EUR/USD pair set to rise to 1.23 in 12 months. Danske Bank notes a high degree of uncertainty in the labor market, with evidence of a sharp decline in both supply and demand.
Generally, if the main factor is supply, there would be less justification for the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates, as unemployment would not rise significantly. However, the bank has provided its interest rate forecast and now expects cuts in October and January, followed by further cuts in April and July. Morever, the bank anticipates that the shift in interest rate differentials will weaken the dollar in the medium term.
Meanwhile, the bank also expects structural factors to continue undermining the US currency as institutional demand for US assets declines.
From a broader perspective, the bank notes that the dollar's share of global transactions has declined. Morever, it does not see its reserve status as threatened, particularly given the lack of attractive alternatives, which limits the potential for US dollar losses.
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