EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: : Remains bearish.
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1610 – 1.1540 – 1.1470.
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1685 – 1.1750 – 1.1830.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1560 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss of 1.1480.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1740 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss of 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
As expected, the EUR/USD price remained within narrow ranges at the beginning of this week's trading, pending market and investor reaction to the policy announcements of both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. On trusted trading platforms, the EUR/USD price is stabilizing around 1.1650 at the time of writing.
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EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is resisting the strength of the US dollar better than most currencies, which is expected to allow it to trade strongly this week. The EUR/USD traded slightly higher against the US dollar last week, and this important week's trading is witnessing a new high, surpassing the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1630.
This rise suggests that the near-term momentum has shifted to the upside, and there is potential for steady movement through the mid-to-late 1.16 range. Although the Euro is rising slowly, it is not decisively trending upward. It is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair remains trading within a multi-month consolidation range. The lower boundary of this range extends to 1.1550 (we disregard the July drop to 1.14 as it was quickly corrected), while the upper boundary is at 1.1750, with temporary spikes to 1.18 and above proving short-lived.
Therefore, we are likely to see a rally within this mentioned range, which means that both strength and weakness will be limited.
Amid the stability of the euro against the US dollar, much of course depends on the actions of the US Federal Reserve in the middle of this week. We know that it will cut US interest rates by 25 basis points, but we do not know its opinion on any further rate cuts later in the year. The general rule of thumb for trading is that any encouragement for further cuts will negatively impact the dollar and allow the EUR/USD pair to break the 1.17 resistance level. Overall, Recent US survey data confirms that the employment situation is slowly deteriorating, and the Federal Reserve will not want to risk exacerbating this situation by keeping US interest rates tight for an extended period. This will ensure that the possibility of further cuts remains.
Trading Tips:
As we advise, the EUR/USD will remain range-bound until the markets react to the US Federal Reserve's announcement this week and then the outcome of the US/China trade dispute.
The Future of Central Bank Policies
However, if the U.S. Central Bank signals caution about another cut in 2025, it will have a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve is currently short on official economic data due to the government shutdown and will not want to signal any major policy change if it feels it is navigating blindly. Given this, we believe we will receive very restrictive guidance from the Federal Reserve, as it does its best to maintain steadiness at the helm until official data begins to flow again.
Obvioulsy, this means that any subsequent reactions in exchange rates after the Fed's decision will eventually fade. Also, we will end the week in a relatively stable position—meaning the EUR/USD is moving upward within its multi-week range.
On another influential front for currency exchange rates, we await the European Central Bank's decision next Thursday, where no change in interest rates is expected. Consequently, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and continued rate stability by the ECB would allow interest rates in the U.S. and the Eurozone to converge further, which is currently supportive of Euro trading.
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