Bitcoin has started to recover from its steep plunge at the end of last week.
My previous BTC/USD signal on 6th October was not triggered.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $112,533, $111,301, or $109,730.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $116,016, $118,308, or $119,815.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
In my last BTC/USD forecast exactly one week ago, I thought that the technical picture was looking more bullish, and that the new support level at $123,567 was likely to be the day’s pivotal point. I was slightly off but was correct on the day about both issues.
Now we know what happened – the price did go on to make a bullish breakout and reach a new record high price, but then quickly fell back, and Bitcoin really was hit hard by the extremely strong risk-off move seen in markets last Friday when President Trump declared the USA would impose a new 100% tariff on Chinese imports from 1st November, which is barely two week away.
President Trump made a more optimistic and conciliatory tweet a few hours ago, so Bitcoin has rebounded from its recent low, but it is still noteworthy that Bitcoin’s recovery looks weaker than the recovery seen in US stock markets or other risky assets.
I think this is a bearish sign for Bitcoin.
Bulls have the upper hand at the time of writing, driving the price up towards the closest key resistance level t $116,016. This level looks quite firm, but I think we could easily see a bullish breakout above it. However, after that, I am not optimistic about forecasting the next directional move here. A weak bullish recovery looks somewhat likely to be the next item.
Investors should probably hold tight here, but day and swing traders might be better off trading Gold instead of Bitcoin. Gold’s strong outperformance, and the generally strong performance of precious metals as a class, is also a reason why it might be wisest to put Bitcoin to the side for the time being.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar. It is a public holiday today in the USA.
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