Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 107,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 115,350.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 115,350.
- Add a stop-loss at 107,000.
Bitcoin price has slipped for two consecutive days as its role as a safe-haven waned. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 111,327, down from the all-time high of 126,123.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis Points to More Downside
The BTC/USD pair peaked at a record high of 126,123 earlier this month and then plunged to a low of 106,978 on Friday last week as the crypto market plunged. It then attempted to bounce back, but then hit a major resistance at 116,000.
The pair has remained below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears are still in control. Also, the two lines of the MACD indicator have formed a bearish crossover, while the histogram has moved below the zero line.
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The pair has also formed a double-top pattern whose neckline is at 106,978, its lowest level on September 1. There are signs that it is forming a bearish flag pattern, which often leads to more downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling, moving from a high of 72 on October 6 to 41, and is still pointing downward. Therefore, the most likely outlook is where the pair continues falling, with the initial target being at 106,978. A move below that level will point to more sell-off to below 100,000.
On the flip side, a move above the 50-day EMA at 115,412 will invalidate the bearish outlook and point to more gains, potentially to the all-time high.
Bitcoin Price Loses Safe-Haven Crown to Gold
The BTC/USD pair has crashed in the past few days as investors turned to gold, which they see as a better safe-haven asset. Gold has jumped to a record high of over $4,200 and is now up by over 60% this year.
Gold’s rally has been supported by the ongoing accumulation by companies and central banks, many of which are moving away from the US dollar, which has lost its value in the past few months.
Bitcoin has also seen weaker demand from treasury companies in the past few weeks as their premium has continued falling. For example, MetaPlanet’s enterprise value moved below the total Bitcoin holdings. Other companies like Strategy and Semler Scientific have also become cheap.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have also slowed this week. Total inflows dropped by over $223 million, a big reversal from inflows of over $2.7 billion last week.
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