Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 107,100.
- Add a stop-loss at 116,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 116,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 107,100.
Bitcoin price remained under pressure this week as the recent attempts to rebuild faded and investors remained in the sidelines after last week’s crash. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 112,500, up from this month's low of 106,300.
Bitcoin price crashed on Tuesday and then pared back losses after China continued putting pressure on the United States. Beijing announced measures to target an American shipping company.
This was the latest part of the trade conflict between the two most powerful companies in the world. Last week, Beijing noted that it would put in place measures to control rare earth materials exports, citing national security issues. It also launched an investigation into Qualcomm, a top American semiconductor company.
The BTC/USD stabilized after US officials confirmed their intention to reach a deal with China, possibly before the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea.
Bitcoin price also wavered as investors remained in the sidelines following last week’s crash. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have had a net outflow of over $300 million this week.
The BTC/USD pair also remained under pressure after the Federal Reserve Chair delivered highly dovish statement in an economic event. He hinted that the bank will end its quantitative tightening policy, which has contributed to the tighter monetary policy.
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Also, Powell hinted that the bank will cut interest rates in the next meeting, citing the deteriorating labor market in the country. Bitcoin and other risky assets normally do well when the bank is cutting rates.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair peaked at over 126,000 earlier this month and dropped to the current 112,520. It has become highly volatile as evidenced by the widening spread of the three lines of the Bollinger Bands and the rising Average Directional Index (ADX).
The pair has formed a bearish flag pattern and moved below the 50-day moving average. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it has a bearish breakout with the next target being last week’s low of 107,100. A move above the important resistance at 115,000 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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