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BTC/USD Forecast: Swings Between Key Moving Averages

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • The Bitcoin market has been all over the place during the trading session here on Tuesday as we have bounced back and forth between the 50-day EMA above and the 200-day EMA below.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility right around the $110,000 level.
  • We have seen a massive push higher, but this is a market that I think doesn't really know what to do with itself right now.

And that makes sense considering everything that we see out there with the precious metals markets, everybody's starting to wonder what's breaking. If that's the case and risk appetite gets eviscerated, it's very difficult for Bitcoin to consider something that you'd be buying. I mean, I'm old enough to remember when it was considered to be a safety asset, but that's been proven wrong more than once.

BTC/USD Forecast: Swings Between Moving Averages (graph)

It's Not Digital Gold.

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Furthermore, it's not digital gold. Otherwise, it would have been doing better recently. Certainly not a currency. So, I think we're still in that scenario where we're trying to figure out what is other than an ETF. So that is, I think the easiest way to look at it is what BlackRock's ETF is doing, and it is attracting inflows? If it is, then Bitcoin goes higher. It's worth noting that we are trying to recover. That’s something that we can hang our hats on. And if we can get above the $115,000 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $120,000 level.

If we break down from here and break down below the 200-day EMA, we could be looking at the $105,000 level, where we visited just a couple of days ago. Remember, Bitcoin is volatile. And if there are a lot of questions out there about the overall risk appetite of the markets, you're going to continue to see moves like this. Buying dips might work, but I think at this point in time, buying dips with huge amounts of trading capital, probably not prudent.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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