My previous AUD/USD signal on 22nd October was not triggered as none of the key support or resistance levels were reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6659, or $0.6696.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6609, $0.6589, or $0.6564.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast last Wednesday, I wrote that things here had become very dull, for almost 10 days we just had a simple consolidation pattern playing out within a range of about 120 pips.
I thought that a short trade from the resistance at $0.6510 would be the best opportunity for the day. This was a good call as the major move was lower, but the price never quite reached $0.6510 so it wasn’t really actionable.
The picture now is much more bullish, after the recent bullish breakout by the Aussie from the previous consolidation zone, which was given a stronger tailwind a few hours ago by Australian CPI rising unexpectedly to as high as 3.5% on an annualized basis, which makes any further rate cuts virtually impossible in the near term. This sent the Aussie higher.
The price action was already bullish, having been moving upwards within a symmetrical ascending price channel, shown in the price chart below by applying a linear regression analysis to the recent price action.
The breakout beyond $0.6609 is a very bullish sign, as the price has about another 50 pips it can rise before meeting the next key resistance level, although it is at the upper limit of its price channel. Yet these upper limits are easily exceeded in a runaway trend.
I will take a bullish bias today as long as the price holds up above $0.6609.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of the Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Statement at 6pm London time.
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