My previous AUD/USD signal on 9th October produced an excellent and nicely profitable short trade from the bearish reversal at $0.6609.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6505, $0.6541, or $0.6559.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6472 or $0.6450.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast one week ago, I wrote that the price was falling from the horizontal resistance level at $0.6609. I thought the day’s action would be choppy, but I was correct to note this level and to suggest trade reversals from levels, as the rejection of $0.6609 gave a great short trade opportunity.
The technical picture has become more bearish, with the price breaking down below the descending price channel, the remnants of which can be seen towards the left of the price chart below.
However, despite the bearish breakdown, the action has seen wide swings in price, making it look unreliable – this is not classic trending price action.
Australian Unemployment Rate data released earlier today showed an unexpected rise, but this does not seem to have had any significant effect upon the Aussie.
Right now, bulls are trying to push the price up above a resistance area confluent with the big round number at $0.6500. I think this is likely to be today’s pivotal point. However, I do not have much confidence in how far the price will run either side of this line.
My ideal set up would be a short trade from a bearish reversal rejecting $0.6500 - $0.6505.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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