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WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Nervous Narrative and Large Wagering Shifts

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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  • WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend near 64.775, this after flirting with the 66.200 vicinity on early Friday.
  • Speculators trading CFD future contracts of WTI Crude Oil may see different pricing depending on what their particularly broker’s platform is offering via forward cash months. However, there is no doubt that WTI Crude Oil has risen in value the past handful of trading days on all platforms.
  • Last Monday’s starting price began around the 62.400 mark and later in the day was near 61.600. Yet, Tuesday’s price after testing values below 62.000 again started to build sustained momentum higher.
  • Not only was the 63.000 level penetrated but it was also durably stronger. On Wednesday a high around 64.920 was seen.
  • On Thursday prices were trading near 65.150 for a solid amount of time. And higher values kept coming.

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 28/09: Rally or Retreat? (Chart)

Friday’s Highs and a Return to Nervous Sentiment

Friday’s trading briefly went above 66.000, but then a reversal lower began and going into the weekend WTI Crude Oil now stands ready to be tested again tomorrow morning. The big question regarding the move upwards last week may find two talking point. One, Russian incursions over NATO countries in Europe via airspace, and two, better than expected U.S Gross Domestic Product numbers showing growth is stronger than anticipated.

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Both tidbits may be right, but they may also be wrong. Perhaps the move up in WTI Crude Oil is a pure speculative buying spree, but the coming week of trading may start to deliver some clues about legitimate narrative. Incursions of NATO airspace by Russia has been reported widely for a couple of weeks and the price of WTI Crude Oil had remained lower during the initial incidents. The better than expected growth statistics on Thursday were a surprise, and could be pointed out as a more solid clue for the rise in value of WTI Crude Oil. Except that doesn’t answer all questions.

WTI Crude Oil Started Rising in Price Early last Week

Because after the 62.000 level was reestablished on Tuesday and the price of WTI Crude Oil started marching up, by Wednesday the highs were touching prices not seen since early September, this before GDP numbers were printed.

  • Perhaps again, the Russian worries with NATO can be used as being significant.
  • But maybe the move up was simply because large buyers found momentum upwards was attainable and speculated on higher prices via simple demand for WTI Crude Oil contracts.
  • This week’s trading that develops will provide some answers.
  • The highs over 66.000 might have felt overbought for some speculators, and this challenge of prices last seen in early August may have sparked the selling late on Friday.
  • WTI Crude Oil is sitting in higher technical ranges when a one week and month chart are looked upon, but a three month chart shows a middling price for the commodity.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 63.400 to 66.500

The higher prices attained in WTI Crude Oil may create more speculative fuel in the commodity this coming week. Depending on how large traders interpret the narratives surrounding the higher prices attained will effect the outcome of speculative action in the commodity. The closing price of WTI Crude Oil below 65.000 is still a rather moderate lower price in the commodity taken with a historical perspective.

In fact going over the 66.000 USD mark last Friday is not something that will cause panic among large players. In fact a look at a one year chart of WTI Crude Oil shows price action above 66.000 a legitimate trading ground most of the past year until this August. So the question is whether we are seeing a readjustment back to known higher realms still within a commodity that is historically cheap, or will WTI Crude Oil once again start trading lower and challenge mid-term support levels. This week of trading in the commodity will test perceptions. Supply still remains abundant.

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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