- As the month of October gets ready to start in a couple of days the USD/INR is trading within record high realms.
- Having started the month of September around the 88.0000 level, the USD/INR has seen momentum continue to take the currency pair to higher realms.
- As of this writing the USD/INR is around the 88.7300 ratio. Speculators who are hoping for a solid downturn in the USD/INR are unlikely to find an easy direction in the coming weeks.
Instead of better results between India and the U.S regarding trade negotiations, which might have helped ease the decline in value which has developed in the Indian Rupee the opposite has happened. President Trump continues to increase pressure on India and has recently added another penalty directed at India’s pharmaceutical exports to the U.S with higher tariffs. The supposedly warm relationship between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump is looking rather ragged at this juncture.
Better Outcomes Remain Painfully Difficult
President Trump once again directly mentioned India regarding the purchase of Russian oil in his United Nations speech. The rhetoric from President Trump did not change, but by mentioning the Crude Oil purchases again to an international audience highlights the difficult path ahead for India and the U.S with trade negotiations. Both countries are apparently sticking to their chosen economic paths, because both Prime Minister Modi and President Trump are aiming their rhetoric also towards their own political bases which give them popular support.
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The move higher in the USD/INR saw velocity increase last week when the H1-B Visas to the U.S for those who are being employed by U.S corporations was increased to $100,000.00. This was not seen as productive in India because the nation supplies the U.S with a highly skilled workforce and feels like it is being penalized. The economic effects of slowing down highly educated skilled labor from India into the U.S may not appear crucial to many people – yet it is significant, it also implies a real breakdown in negotiations between the two countries. Nervous sentiment is continuing to build in India which looks upon the moves by the White House as outlandish, this while President Trump tries to force a change to India’s energy policy.
Looking at 89.0000 as a Target in October
Upside incremental movement in the USD/INR is unlikely to disappear in the coming week and the month of October may prove troublesome on a whole for the White House. President Trump will have his attention drawn elsewhere this week as the threat of a U.S government shutdown looms.
- The USD/INR is still highly controlled by the Reserve Bank of India, but pressures from Indian corporations via their chosen financial institutions are certainly causing nervous sentiment to believe the Indian Rupee will remain vulnerable.
- Day trading the USD/INR is nearly impossible in India for those without VPNs, those who want to pursue the currency pair and look for higher marks cannot be blamed, but they should be careful.
- The RBI frowns upon speculation and the moves higher in the USD/INR will be controlled.
- Looking for the 89.0000 level to develop a magnetic glow doesn’t seem farfetched.
USD/INR Outlook for October 2025
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 88.5600 to 89.3500
Trying to time the movements of the USD/INR remains incredibly difficult for speculators. Upside price action is likely, but reversals lower do happen and there are also wide spreads between bids and asks which are ultra-dangerous. If a day trader wants to buy the USD/INR, the use of take profit orders should be considered and the trader will need patience.
If the U.S government does shutdown in the middle of this week, this could cause safe haven strength in the USD to grow. But the correlation between the USD/INR to the broad Forex market is not exactly lock step, in fact the USD/INR has produced a rather bullish stand over the long-term no matter the circumstance, this as the Reserve Bank of India tries to manage economic conditions in the nation. Looking for higher ground in the USD/INR is logical, but day traders pursuing the currency pair need to remain vigilant.
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