- The US dollar has been a bit noisy against the Indian rupee during the trading session on Wednesday, as we have started to form a little bit of an inside candlestick.
- All things being equal, we have been consolidating, but I'm watching this very closely because we could be and this is a preliminary pattern.
- This is not something that I know for a fact, or are willing to jump in with huge position, but we might be getting ready to form some type of ascending wedge. We'll have to wait to see.
Because at the same time, you can make an argument that the market is probably going to also interpret this as a potential bullish flag. So, we've got a lot of things going on. And I like watching this market because it should give us a clear indication as to where it wants to go in the next couple of days. If we break above the 88.50 rupee level, then the market really takes off.
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If the market pulls back and starts falling, perhaps even below the last couple of candlesticks somewhere around 88 rupee, then a pullback towards a 50 day EMA makes a certain amount of sense. The question here is are there a lot of concerns around the world about global growth? I think there are. And because of that, I think a pullback could happen, but I think it's short-lived. Keep in mind that there's 50 % tariffs on India right now via the United States. And while India truthfully doesn't provide much trade to the United States beyond IT related tech support and things like that, it does have an effect on their economy.
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President Trump has recently threatened to look into the idea of forcing IT companies in the United States to use onshore technical support. And if that's the case, that could cause India massive amounts of jobs. There's a lot of noise around this pair, I guess, is essentially the takeaway here. With that being said, watch 88.50. Above there is very bullish. A pullback and a breakdown below the 88 level could be temporary pullback, but I think you have buyers willing to get involved. It's really not until we break down below the 50 day EMA, or maybe even the 87 rupee level that I would become aggressively short. Furthermore, you would have to see the US dollar get clobbered against other currencies as well.
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