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USD/ILS Analysis: Reactive Trade Values with Rather Tight Frameworks

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The USD/ILS is near the 3.37360 ratio as of this writing with standard bids and asks being shown on trading platforms, the currency pair has shown a near-term ability to remain under 3.40000.

USD/ILS Analysis 03/09: Reactive Trade Values (Chart)

After falling to lows around the 3.30600 vicinity in the second week of July momentarily, the USD/ILS found itself near 3.45000 on the 5th of August. The USD/ILS as of this morning is near the 3.37360 mark and yesterday’s trading briefly flirted with values within sight of 3.40000. However, downside pressure certainly came into the market which showed muscle memory of lower values around 3.33500 on Monday and early Tuesday.

The USD/ILS continues to prove it has a rather durable range. The 3.30000 to 3.40000 realm could be said to be a place traders are comfortable. However, speculators need to pay attention to technical influences because the USD/ILS remains a second tier Forex pair without a significant amount of volume, meaning it can be pushed around when large orders filter into the market.

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Reactive Selling Followed by Sideways Action

After yesterday’s run up to around the 3.39725 ratio, the USD/ILS started to see more selling develop. The USD/ILS was around 3.38850 early this morning, when it experienced a quick drop to the 1.37990 ratio. Bids and asks remain wide in the USD/ILS frequently, and day traders are advised to use entry price orders so they do not get hit with surprising price fills.

The USD/ILS move to lower realms late last week correlated to the broad Forex market. The USD/ILS did open trading near the 3.44000 level on the 25th of August, but in the wake of the solid U.S GDP reports via growth and inflation the currency pair was traversing lows near 3.31850 which had last been seen in the second week of July. The USD/ILS will get another test when the U.S jobs numbers are printed this Friday, however there is a cautionary sign day traders need to give attention.

Wagering on Lower USD/ILS Price Action

Because the USD/ILS doesn’t have a lot of volume on Friday’s, the biggest reaction to the U.S jobs numbers is unlikely to be seen until early Monday. Meaning that financial institutions that are wagering on the value of the USD/ILS may position themselves tomorrow in preparation.

  • However, the last jobs report came in weaker than expected in the U.S, and the Fed has already admitted they will likely cut interest rates in September.
  • Meaning that larger players are likely betting on sentiment and how this will affect their mid-term outlooks.
  • The currency pair is likely to correlate to the broad market depending on existing risk appetite.
  • But the known range of the USD/ILS will likely continue to see the most price action.
  • Looking for slightly lower values in the USD/ILS may be tempting if resistance is tested, but should be done with solid risk management

USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 3.37600

Current Support: 3.36500

High Target: 3.39800

Low Target: 3.34300

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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