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S&P 500 Analysis: Challenge of Highs as U.S Shutdown Shadows Traders

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The S&P 500 touched the 6,691.00 ratio in yesterday’s trading, but then saw some downside price action as short-term nervous sentiment became a fixture in the stock index.

S&P 500 Analysis 30/09: Challenge of Highs (Chart)

Yesterday’s climb to nearly 6,691.00 in the S&P500 did not break a new record high, but it came within fighting sight of the 6,709.00 realm that was seen last Tuesday. The allure of record values in the S&P 500 continues to attract investors who are thinking long-term, and short-term day traders have certainly seen the upside action.

However, shadows lurk. While the U.S major indices are flirting with all-time values, the threat of a U.S government shutdown has created headwinds. The shutdown could start to become official tomorrow, politicians in Washington are signaling no agreement will be made by Wednesday. Concerns about a U.S shutdown caused some selling late last week in the S&P 500, and yesterday’s late trading likely felt sentiment shifting negatively too.

Timeframes and Outlook for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 continues to lurk within higher terrain, but the selling produced late yesterday and early morning pressure today via futures shows the index near the 6,660.00 ratio with rather fast results being produced. Day traders who believe the S&P 500 is a solid upside wager should take a deep breath and consider the notion that short and near-term sentiment is going to become volatile.

It appears likely the shutdown will happen, and now it will become a question of how stubborn Washington D.C politicians will be on both sides of the aisle. Financial institutions have seen shutdowns before, but typically they do not last long. If the government is shuttered going into the weekend this could produce shockwaves through the broad markets which could cause volatility in the S&P 500. While some day traders may think a sold off S&P 500 is an opportunity to buy at a discount, if the shutdown lingers there is always a chance values could fall further in the near-term.

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Behavioral Sentiment and Discount Prices

Behavioral sentiment will be driven by large investment houses which also may be thinking the same thing, meaning they might become suddenly active if they believe there are opportunities to buy for the long haul at discounted values.

  • Today and tomorrow’s S&P 500 may take on the look of a casino.
  • Perspectives regarding support and resistance ratios are likely to factor into volatile trading sessions as long as clarity remains murky.
  • Certainly the impasse regarding the government shutdown will be resolved, but when?
  • If the shutdown last into the weekend, will long-term investors be willing to now buy the S&P 500 simply on the belief that values over the next six and twelve months are all that really matters?
  • Day traders should be extremely careful in the near-term because conditions will be driven by nervous large players.

S&P 500 Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 6,668.00

Current Support: 6,651.00

High Target: 6,690.00

Low Target: 6,630.00

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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