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Natural Gas Forecast: Rallies After Gap Lower

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • The natural gas market has been very noisy during the trading session on Monday as we initially gapped lower only to turn around and show signs of life and break above the top of the hammer from the previous session on Friday.
  • At this point, we are above the 200 day EMA, but we are struggling. think we might get a little bit of sideways action here, but I think ultimately if we do get a pullback, I do believe that buyers are interested.
  • After all, we had a massive gap at the beginning of the November contract, which makes quite a bit of sense and therefore I think we are looking toward the colder months and with the November contract being the beginning of colder temperatures, people are starting to look at the idea of more demand.

Ultimately, I do think that natural gas eventually moves its way up to the $4 level, but it probably takes quite a bit of effort to do so. While I think it makes sense, I also think that time will have to pass before we can get to that massive level.

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Noisy Trading Ahead? Maybe.

Natural Gas Forecast 30/09: Rallies After Gap Lower (graph)

Short-term pullbacks, I think, offer buying opportunities, and that's exactly what I'm looking for right here. Maybe we will get a little bit of a gap fill and then a turnaround, which I am all over if that happens. If we can break above the $3.40 level, then I think we may not get that gap filled. And ultimately, we just continue to grind higher. That probably takes some type of external factor, but at this point we are most certainly at a major inflection point that typically favors natural gas over the next couple of months. So, with that, I am starting to buy on the dips or breakouts.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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