- Gold has been rather choppy during the month of August, but that’s probably not a huge surprise for a multitude of reasons.
- The first one is the fact that volume is a little bit light this time of year as most traders are more concerned about the vacations that they are on, rather than what’s going on in the short term market movement.
- That being said, this is not to say that there are plenty of opportunities. Furthermore, we are starting to get toward the time of year that sees a pickup and volume.
September is always an interesting month, because traders come back from vacation, and start to put larger positions on again. This can lead to significant moves, and this year is going to have even more potential momentum, as the Federal Reserve has a very important interest rate decision and meeting coming out during the month. On September 17, the FOMC will issue its interest rate decision, and give a statement, as well as the press conference. While most people believe that they will announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the reality is that it will be the statement and the tone of the meeting that will move markets the most.
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Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks
It’s not just the Federal Reserve that is cutting rates, it’s also the RBNZ in New Zealand, which already has, and there are other central banks out there likely to do the same thing. If that does in fact end up being the case, then you have a situation where traders will be watching very closely, as gold typically does fairly well with loose monetary policy. Furthermore, we also have to pay close attention to the global economy right now, which is seemingly in a little bit of trouble. Sometimes traders will use gold as a way to protect wealth as well, which of course will provide more support.
Ultimately, this will more likely than not remain a “buy on the dips” market, and if we can break above the crucial $3500 level, it is at that point where I would anticipate that we see a lot of “FOMO” into the market. It is not until we break down below the $3200 level that I would be about the trend.
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