- The GBP/USD closed this weekend near 1.33985 which is a considerable drop off of value considering the currency pair touched a high of nearly 1.37450 on the 17th of September.
- The move lower by the GBP/USD since then has correlated to the broad Forex market. Which after the interest rate from the U.S Federal Reserve as anticipated and additional clues that another rate cut will follow in late October, has nonetheless seen the USD get stronger the past handful of days.
- Why has the USD gotten stronger in Forex? The GBP/USD is now traversing support levels via technical considerations which may be deemed important. The GBP/USD was trading around it current values in the third week of April.
- While upside price action in the GBP/USD has been seen and strong at times, interpretations regarding fair market value in the currency pair remain rather dangerous to wager on for day traders.
- The heights of the GBP/USD in the middle of September only touched highs achieved in early July of this year. Political shadows are casting a shadow.
Looking For Truth Amidst Lower GBP/USD Values
U.S GDP data last week was stronger than anticipated. Inflation readings largely met expectations. So again, U.S economic considerations have met the forecasts of financial institutions. Logically the USD had been trading slightly weaker against major currencies leading into the Fed’s FOMC decision on the 17th of September, and saw additional weakness afterwards. So why is the USD not only starting to get stronger, but also why is the GBP/USD selling off quickly along with other major currencies against the USD? Financial institutions are cautious certainly, but it isn’t U.S data that is likely causing the storm.
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While some traders may speak about upcoming jobs number this week – on Friday, there is another consideration. A U.S government shutdown. There are clues that the Democrats are willing to shutdown the U.S government in the middle of this coming week. While this has happened before, financial institutions probably are reacting to the potential shutdown with extreme caution because they cannot read the political roadmap ahead. The USD may be looked upon as a safe haven for the near-term because of unknown potential reactions if the government shutdown becomes real and causes financial market turbulence particularly among U.S equity indices.
GDP/USD Lows and Wagers on Reversals
The lows of the GBP/USD do appear to be oversold, but betting against existing sentiment in the coming couple of days could prove dangerous for folks who are looking for what they perceive as buying reactions which are supposed to develop.
- If the U.S government shutdown does occur, it may be a sign that another round of loud rhetoric will flare and financial institutions may simply be playing it safe for the time being.
- Short and near-term wagering in the GBP/USD may prove to be volatile, particularly if political noise escalates Monday and Tuesday.
- Day traders may believe there will be opportunities to take advantage of current Forex conditions, but nimble bets will be needed.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.32300 to 1.36100
The higher ground seen only a handful of days ago in the GBP/USD may return, but with nervous sentiment surrounding the U.S political sphere traders should remain speculatively cautious. U.S economic data has been better than many analysts have forecasted, but in the coming days this will not be the biggest influence.
Patience should be used by large players who believe the GBP/USD is likely to return to higher realms. However, Democrats may be looking for a genuine fight with President Trump this week, and if this turns out to be true and a long battle of wills ensues it will cause extremely choppy conditions in the broad financial markets and Forex. The GBP/USD may look oversold for the moment, but betting on when reversals will develop could prove very dangerous this coming week.
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