Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit 1.3200.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3600.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3200.
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained flat on Tuesday as traders waited for the upcoming US consumer confidence report. It rose to a high of 1.3437, up from last week's low of 1.3330.
US Consumer Confidence Data
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose slightly ahead of the closely-watched consumer confidence and JOLTs job openings report. Economists expect the data to show that the country’s confidence slipped from 97.4 in August to 96 this month.
Consumer confidence is one of the most important numbers because their spending is the biggest part of the economy. Falling confidence would be a sign that the economy is slowing.
The GBP/USD pair will also react to the latest JOLTs job openings data. Economists see the data coming in at 7.1 million, down from 7.181 million. This is an important report because it will show whether the labor market is doing well.
The JOLTs job vacancy numbers will come a day before ADP releases its private payrolls data. Economists expect the report to show that the private sector added 50,000 jobs in September after adding 54k in August.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will then release the official non-farm payroll data. Economists expect the upcoming jobs numbers to show that the economy added 50k jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
The GBP/USD exchange rate will also react to statements by several Bank of England (BoE) officials. Some of these officials are Sarah Breeden, Catherine Mann, and Dave Ramsden. These members will comment on the recent interest rate decision, in which officials left interest rates unchanged.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate has pulled back in the past few days as it moved from a high of 1.3725 to 1.3437. It has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair is at the lower side of the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
The MACD indicator has moved below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index has dropped below the neutral line at 50.
Also, the pair has formed a double-top pattern at 1.3725, its highest swings in July and September. The pattern’s neckline is at 1.3140, its lowest swing on August 1.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume the downtrend as sellers target the neckline at 1.3141. A move above the resistance level at 1.3500 will invalidate the bearish view.
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