Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1600.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.18000.
The EUR/USD exchange rate was in a tight range on Monday morning as several notable Wall Street analysts predicted that the euro has more upside in the coming months. It rose to the important resistance level at 1.1700, slightly above this week's low of 1.1648.
Wall Street Analysts are Bullish on the Euro
The EUR/USD exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend this year and analysts believe that it has more room to run, potentially to the important resistance level at 1.200.
Such a move will be the continuation of the already strong performance this year, which has become its best-performing period since 2017. Some of the most bullish analysts are from companies like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, which expect it to rise to 1.25, 1.22, and 1.23 in the next 12 months, respectively.
These banks cite the potential divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Estimates are that the ECB has completed cutting interest rates, while the Fed is just starting with its cuts.
Another bullish catalyst for the euro is that investors have rushed to hedge their exposure to the US dollar because of Donald Trump's isolationist policies, especially on tariffs.
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Looking ahead, the EUR/USD exchange rate will react to the upcoming macro data from the United States, which will have an impact on the Federal Reserve.
The most important macro data will be on the US labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will first publish the latest JOLTs job vacancies numbers on Tuesday, while ADP will publish the latest private payrolls data on Wednesday.
Traders will mostly focus on the official nonfarm payrolls jobs numbers on Friday, which will provide more information about the labor market. This will be a closely-watched labor report as the recent numbers showed that the labor market has largely stalled.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate has pulled back in the past few weeks, moving from a high of 1.1915 to 1.1700 today.
It has remained above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since May 12 this year. The pair also moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has remained above the neutral point.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend as bulls target the important resistance level at 1.1800. A drop below the ascending trendline will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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