EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Neutral.
- Support points for the EURUSD today: 1.1680 – 1.1600 – 1.1540.
- Resistance points for the EURUSD today: 1.1760 – 1.1820 – 1.1900.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy the EURUSD from the support level of 1.1600, target 1.1760, and stop 1.1520.
- Sell the EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1820, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1900.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Based on recent performance across reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair is undergoing a corrective decline towards a broken support area, following a sharp drop from its high of 1.1822. The Euro/Dollar pair appears to be testing key resistance levels that align with Fibonacci retracement levels, forming a potential clustering area where sellers may be waiting for an opportunity to reinforce the downtrend.
The Euro/Dollar price is currently hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1755, which represents the first major resistance level in this correction. Any further drop may target the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.17545, while strong buying pressure could push the EUR/USD toward the 61.8% level at 1.17553. This last area also coincides with the former broken support zone, which may now act as a dynamic resistance area.
Therefore, if the Fibonacci resistance levels hold and the EUR/USD pair fails to consolidate at current levels, the pair may resume its decline towards the low of 1.1646 or target lower levels. Conversely, a break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level could signal a larger correction towards the psychological level of 1.1800. The moving average indicator shows that the 100-period simple moving average has fallen below the 200-period simple moving average, confirming the prevailing downtrend. This bearish crossover suggests that the decline may continue, and the two dynamic levels may act as additional resistance in the event of any attempt to rise.
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However, price momentum indicators are showing some signs of recovery. The Stochastic indicator has risen from oversold territory and is currently indicating an uptrend, suggesting that buying pressure may emerge in the near term. The indicator still has room to rise before reaching overbought territory, suggesting that the correction may continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also reflects the current recovery attempt, having risen from severe oversold levels. The index remains below the central level, but it appears to be gaining momentum, which may indicate that buyers are beginning to intervene at these levels.
Trading Tips:
Keep in mind that the EUR/USD exchange rate may be influenced by the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, in addition to key US labor market indicators ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) announcement on Friday.
EUR/USD in a volatile position
The Euro’s upward momentum appears to be increasingly fragile at this stage. The US Dollar started the new week on the back foot, allowing the British Pound and the Euro to stabilize and recover some of their previous losses. However, this weakness comes ahead of the release of important US economic data, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the private sector jobs report on Friday; any better-than-expected data will bolster the US Dollar's rise.
The EUR/USD exchange rate saw a slight increase from Thursday's low of 1.1650 to 1.1718 yesterday. The exchange rate has returned to its 9-day exponential moving average, but continued weakness is expected as long as it remains below it. In short, the euro's strength is expected to be short-lived, as gains will attract sellers and lead to new declines.
The daily chart shows diminishing expectations for the Euro/Dollar: last week's sell-off surpassed the ascending support line, signaling the end of the September rally.
Recently, US Treasury yields have risen in response to strong US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve, fueling the dollar's rise and the euro's decline. According to forex trading experts, the September Federal Reserve meeting and positive US economic data have contributed to the euro against the dollar remaining within the 1.14-1.18 range since May.
According to the economic calendar, US GDP rose to 3.8% in the second quarter, the highest growth rate in two years. This level of economic growth does not indicate a need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, raising questions about previous market expectations of a rate cut at every meeting this year.
As rate-cut expectations diminish, the US Dollar's price is rising against other major currencies.
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