EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Neutral with a bullish bias.
- Support Levels: 1.1680 – 1.1600 – 1.1540
- Resistance Levels: 1.1785 – 1.1820 – 1.1900
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1600, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1520.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1820, with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
EUR/USD gains may continue to be contingent on market and investor reactions to the US Federal Reserve's announcement this week, amid strong expectations that the bank will cut US interest rates following disappointing US jobs data, pressure from Trump, and mixed US inflation figures. According to licensed currency trading platforms, EUR/USD gains extended to the 1.1780 resistance level before closing last week's trading stable around 1.1733, with bulls failing to breach the psychological resistance of 1.1800.
This Week's Trading Question: Can EUR/USD Break 1.18 with a U.S. Rate Cut?
According to forex experts, the EUR/USD exchange rate rebounded to 1.1730 on Thursday after ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the rate-cutting cycle might be over. This boosted the euro despite mixed inflation and labor market data in the U.S. Forex analysts expect the EUR/USD pair to remain within the 1.1650-1.1750 range for now, with a potential break above 1.18 only if the Fed accelerates its rate cuts this week while the ECB holds its policy steady.
Will the EUR/USD pair rise in the coming days?
According to forex trading, the euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate briefly rose after the latest US jobs data, then recorded renewed gains after Lagarde's hints that the ECB would not make any further rate cuts boosted the euro. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1730 from its lows of 1.1660, but the most important question is: Will the euro maintain its gains and rise further, or will the dollar resist again?
In this regard, currency experts expect the euro to trade within a price range, most likely between 1.1675 and 1.1755. They believe that the EUR/USD price will not sustainably exceed the 1.18 resistance level unless it becomes clear that the Federal Reserve will make further significant cuts to US interest rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank shows no signs of further cuts, and Donald Trump continues to undermine the Fed's independence.
On the economic front, according to the economic calendar, US consumer prices rose by 0.4% in August, following a previous increase of 0.2%, compared to consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase, with the annual rate rising to 2.9% from 2.7%. Core prices also rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, with the annual rate remaining at 3.1%. Both figures were in line with expectations. In another context, US initial jobless claims rose to 263,000 in the latest week, from 236,000 previously, exceeding expectations of 235,000 and recording the highest reading since June 2023.
Following this data, the currency trading market has fully priced in the possibility of three rate cuts by the end of 2025. Furthermore, the probability of a 50-basis point U.S. rate cut this week has also risen to about 12%.
Top Forex Brokers
Based on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair will likely continue to trade within a relatively narrow range of 1.16 and 1.18 in the short term. Technically, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around a reading of 56, moving away from the neutral line, which supports the bulls to push higher if factors for more EUR/USD buying are available. The MACD lines are also preparing to turn upward, awaiting a catalyst. The EUR/USD pair is not anticipating any significant economic data from either the U.S. or the Eurozone today, which confirms the likelihood of the pair moving within a tight range at the start of the week's trading.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to be patient and avoid risk until the markets react to the U.S. central bank's announcement later this week, as this will lead to strong and volatile currency price movements.
The Future of ECB Policies
Recently, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.00% at its last monetary policy meeting. Inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were slightly increased, but this increase was offset by a slight downward revision for 2027. At the same time, the bank provided little official guidance for the future. However, ECB President Lagarde was more optimistic about the outlook, indicating that risks to economic growth are now more balanced. Lagarde also commented on the completion of the disinflation process. In response, traders no longer support any further interest rate cuts by the ECB.
Overall, some Investment banks are cautious. Experts believe the central bank is unlikely to change interest rates again this year, but we believe the risks are tilted toward further cuts in 2026.
Fitch Downgrades France's Credit Rating
In a move that could affect forex traders' sentiment toward the euro, Fitch Ratings on Friday lowered France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing political turmoil and rising debt. The downgrade comes just days after François Bayrou resigned as Prime Minister after losing a parliamentary no-confidence vote over an attempt to pass an austerity budget. According to Fitch, this new rating—the lowest ever from a major credit rating agency for France—has a stable outlook.
French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu, a loyal governor, to form a new government after lawmakers ousted veteran centrist François Bayrou in a no-confidence vote over his proposed €44 billion ($52 billion) budget cut. France's current credit rating from Standard & Poor's is AA- with a negative outlook. Moody's last rated France at Aa3 with a stable outlook. And DBRS Morningstar last rated France at AA (high), also with a negative outlook.
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