My previous AUD/USD signal on 18th September produced a profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at $0.6696.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6609, $0.6659, or $0.6696.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6584, $0.6572, or $0.6559.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast almost two weeks ago, I wrote that the price chart was messy and hard to predict. I thought that the level at $0.6652 might be pivotal and I was completely wrong about that.
The technical picture looks more straightforward today: a strong recent rise which was clearly held by the resistance level at $0.6609 which is quite confluent with the round number at $0.6600. This area looks likely to be pivotal today, and we already have seen the high of the day. However, if the price can overcome $0.6609, it has a lot of room to rise before it hits the next resistance level at $0.6659, although there is a previous inflection point within this area which might also provide resistance if reached.
There is generally bullish sentiment in the markets although to some extent the Aussie has become less of a risk barometer.
I think the best trade which could set up here will be a long trade above $0.6609, especially if we get a retest and bullish basing off that level following the initial breakout. Another approach is to look for two consecutive higher hourly closes with both being bullish candlesticks. Keep in mind that the reward to risk should be appropriate and that $0.6650 looks likely to be a realistic short-term profit target.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings data at 3pm London time.
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