Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6800.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6800.
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its strong rally, reaching its highest point since November last year. It jumped to a high of 0.6665, up by 12.45% from its lowest point this year.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its strong rally as the US Dollar Index (DXY) plunged to $97.5, much lower than the year-to-date high of $110.
The dollar has plunged, coinciding with the ongoing retreat of US bond yields. Data shows that the ten-year bond yield dropped to 4.06%, down from the year-to-date high of 4.80%.
This performance happened as investors predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming meeting. Odds of a Fed cut jumped after the US published weak jobs numbers earlier this month.
The numbers revealed that the economy created just 22,000 jobs in August as the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Another report released last week showed that there were 911k less people in the payroll than expected.
There will be other important economic numbers to watch this week. The first one will be the US retail sales, which are scheduled on Tuesday. This report will provide more information on the state of the economy.
The other important data will be Australia’s jobs numbers, which are scheduled on Thursday. Economists expect the report to show that the economy created 21.2k jobs in July to 24.5k in August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart show that the AUD/USD exchange rate rose from 0.5913 in April to a high of 0.6650 today. It crossed the important resistance level at 0.6623, its highest swing in August.
The pair moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has moved to the top of the trading range of the Murrey Math Lines.
The AUD/USD pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicator have continued rising, a sign that it has the momentum. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the ultimate resistance at 0.6835. A drop below the support at 0.6590, the major S/R pivot point will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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