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USD/RUB Analysis: Consolidation Remains Intact as Trump - Putin Loom

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The USD/RUB remains almost locked in place around the 79.1000 to 79.8000 range with the occasional outlier, this as the Trump – Putin summit in Alaska gets ready to take place on Friday.

USD/RUB Analysis 14/08: Consolidation Remains Intact (Chart)

Traders of the USD/RUB have had to embrace a supreme amount of patience as they try to decipher the fractional gyrations of the currency pair this past week. The USD/RUB remains consolidated in a tight range as the outcome of the Trump and Putin summit is anticipated per tomorrow’s scheduled talks. The USD/RUB has incrementally lowered the past couple of weeks, but to take advantage of the movement rather tactical trading has been needed.

The ability of the USD/RUB to traverse near the 79.0000 ratio is noteworthy. Wagers on the tomorrow’s summit outcome may not have much opportunity to take advantage of the summit via the currency pair until early on Monday. The outcome of the Trump and Putting meeting is likely to develop late on Friday. Positions can be used potentially via standing orders with entry price mandates for the USD/RUB on Monday. But for real gamblers looking for price action, perhaps the real way to wager on the Alaska meeting tomorrow will be to get into the USD/RUB today and early tomorrow.

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Patience and Conservative Leverage

President Trump is likely to remain mostly diplomatic during his meeting with Vladimir Putin tomorrow. Although Trump has the ability to go off script, he is likely to try and refrain from expressing anger, the U.S President has shown respect for Putin in the past. In fact, it is more likely Trump will try to paint a positive picture no matter the real outcome of the U.S and Russia get together. This may leave the weekend for interpretations to be heard globally, and opinions to make noise. Let’s remember Ukraine is not attending the meeting.

If a trader believes a positive spin will be put on the summit results, the USD/RUB could certainly be a candidate for selling. Perhaps conservative speculators will want to get into a selling position today or tomorrow and put a take profit trade near the target of their choice. Can the 78.0000 to 77.0000 be seen? Traders will need patience, and deep pockets to absorb the carrying charges over the weekend to wager on the USD/RUB going into Monday’s trading is important.

Potential for a Breakout from Consolidation

Yes, there is a chance USD/RUB volatility could be sparked today and tomorrow. The currency pair doesn’t have much volume, so large cash positions could certainly move values.

  • Traders considering a wager on the USD/RUB have to understand the dynamics they are speculating within, particularly taking into mind the consolidation in the USD/RUB the past handful of days.
  • It can be argued slight incremental selling pressure has been seen, but it is also clear the moves toward the 79.8000 vicinity have occurred too.
  • The USD/RUB will be a playground for betting today and into the near-term.
  • Solid risk taking tactics are needed. Looking for slight downside momentum may be the right choice, but the targets need to be realistic.

USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 79.8000

Current Support: 79.0800

High Target: 80.3000

Low Target: 77.6000

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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