- The US dollar initially did pull back just a bit during the trading session here on Friday but has turned around to show signs of life.
- All things being equal. think this is a market that probably is in the midst of trying to find some type of bottom.
- The 50 day EMA sits just above, and that does offer a bit of technical resistance, we'll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
But right now, I think you have to assume that we're in a certain amount of consolidation and why wouldn't we be this time of year is typically pretty quiet as far as volume is concerned. And as a result, I think we will probably go sideways for a while. This will be an interesting pair to watch because the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates later this year, but the Swiss are nowhere near hiking rates either. It's an extraordinarily low interest rate environment for the Swiss. So, if the US dollar starts to pick up steam, this might be one of the first places you really see it start to take off.
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Alternatively, if we do find out that the US economy is in worse shape than we thought, then while the US dollar will probably do better against other currencies, this one might remain somewhat flat as the Swiss franc is a bit of a safety currency. So probably noisy days ahead, but in the short term, I think we're just bouncing around the 50 day EMA and short term scalpers will probably continue to take advantage of that.
I have no interest in shorting this pair because in this type of environment, it is most certainly better to get paid at the end of the day via swap than it is to go against it. But really, I think price action suggests that we are settling in and trying to wait patiently for more information.
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