Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Strongly bullish.
- Today's Gold Support Levels: $3368 - $3340 - $3290 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3415 - $3450 - $3480 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $3440, with a target of $3320 and a stop-loss at $3470.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3330, with a target of $3420 and a stop-loss at $3300.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
The gold price index has returned to the vicinity of the psychological resistance of $3400 per ounce, as we expected. We have frequently recommended buying gold on every dip through our free trading recommendations page and Telegram channel. Geopolitical tensions caused by the US administration under President Trump, along with central banks' record purchases of gold bars, will remain the main factors supporting the upward trend in gold prices. This is in addition to the pressure on the US dollar due to weak investor sentiment resulting from Trump's policies, US job numbers, and the conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve administration.
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Will Gold Prices Rise Today?
Answer: Yes. Spot gold prices are stable around their highest level in over two weeks. A break above the psychological resistance of $3400 per ounce today will give the bulls more positive momentum for stronger, record-breaking upward movements. The gains in the gold market have increased as growing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy continue to support the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal.
On the economic calendar data front, US data showed that the ISM Services Index fell in July, defying expectations and indicating slower growth, lower employment, and rising price pressures. Additional data released last week also pointed to weakness in the US labor market and consumer spending. Overall, these indicators of economic weakness in the world's largest economy have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease its monetary policy at its September meeting, with financial markets now pricing in about a 90% probability of a US interest rate cut. Gold also found support from the latest round of tariffs imposed by President Trump and renewed concerns about the Fed's independence following Governor Kugler's resignation, which gives Trump an opportunity to appoint a more accommodative successor.
Gold Trading Scenarios
Gold Upside Scenario: This scenario, which includes a no-deposit bonus, depends on the continuation of the positive momentum for the gold price index after breaking past the $3400 per ounce resistance level. The 14-day RSI on the daily chart is around a reading of 57, moving away from the neutral line, and the MACD indicator lines are preparing to move upward. The technical indicators still have time to make stronger gains before reaching overbought levels.
Gold Downside Scenario: On the same daily timeframe, the current bullish outlook for gold prices could be broken if bears return the XAU/USD pair to the support levels of $3340 and $3300, respectively.
Trading Advice: Traders are advised to monitor the factors influencing the gold trading market and to buy on every price dip.
The US Dollar Remains Under Pressure
According to forex currency market trades, the US Dollar Index fell for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, dropping to 98.4, as traders awaited developments regarding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership. President Trump stated on Tuesday that he would appoint a candidate to replace outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler by the end of the week and revealed that he had narrowed the list of candidates to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to four finalists.
At the same time, market expectations for a US interest rate cut in September rose to about 90% following a series of weak economic data. The latest ISM report showed an unexpected stagnation in the US services sector, accompanied by rising price pressures. Adding to the cautious outlook, a jobs report last week revealed that the US economy added a total of only 73,000 jobs in July, with significant downward revisions to the numbers from the previous two months, indicating a notable slowdown in the labor market. In response, President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarffer.
Conversely, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.25% on Wednesday after weak demand for new 10-year bonds, reflecting continued concerns about long-term inflation risks. However, the bond yield remains close to its three-month low of 4.19% from the previous session. In addition to the reaction to the US data results, the Treasury Department lowered yields and announced that it would increase the size of its buyback operations for securities, bonds, and inflation-protected debt.
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