Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Bullish.
- Gold Support Levels Today: $3335 – $3310 – $3260 per ounce.
- Gold Resistance Levels Today: $3375 – $3400 – $3460 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Buy gold from the $3310 support level, with a target of $3400 and a stop-loss at $3270.
- Sell gold from the $3400 resistance level, with a target of $3270 and a stop-loss at $3440.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
For the second consecutive session, gold futures have turned higher, ending a two-day losing streak. The precious metal has now risen in six of the last nine trading sessions. According to data from gold trading platforms, the gold price index rose to the $3370 resistance level before settling around $3355 per ounce at the time of writing. Buying interest in gold increased after US Treasury Secretary Scott Biesent's comments supporting a half-point interest rate cut in September.
Conversely, the latest US Consumer Price Index data showed core inflation rising more than 3% year-on-year. Accordingly, analysts suggest that the US inflation target of 2% is no longer the focus of the Federal Reserve.
Upcoming Technical Levels for Gold
Based on the daily chart and analyst forecasts, gold's bullish trend remains supported as long as it holds above the $3300 resistance level. If the current upward momentum continues, the bulls may find opportunities to advance toward resistance levels at $3378, $3385, and then the psychological level of $3400 per ounce, which would strengthen their control over the trend. The recent rally hasn't significantly moved the 14-day RSI from its midpoint, and the MACD indicator remains in neutral territory.
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As we mentioned earlier, the $3,400 resistance level will remain an important indicator of bullish control over gold. Conversely, the success of the gold downside scenario over this period will depend on a successful break of the $3,300 support level. Today's gold/USD price will be affected by the reaction to the remaining US inflation data, cautious anticipation of the outcome of tomorrow's Trump-Putin meeting, and investor sentiment regarding risk appetite.
Sharp Decline in the US Dollar
According to forex trading, occurred, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 97.8 points yesterday, continuing its decline from the previous session, as financial markets continued to bet on multiple US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the latest market data.
According to economic calendar data, US headline inflation held steady at 2.7%, slightly below the forecast of 2.8%, even though core inflation rose to a six-month high of 3.1%. As a result, traders have priced in a 25-basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting. This sentiment has been fueled by sharp downward revisions to jobs data and pessimistic outcomes from the ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which has put pressure on the dollar against other G10 currencies.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump extended the truce between the US and China for another 90 days to allow more time for negotiations.
According to market trading, the US dollar continued its losses against the euro and the British pound, while losing further ground against the yen, despite Bank of Japan officials indicating a slight inclination to maintain their monetary policy accommodative stance.
Decline in US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell, another factor affecting the gold market was the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The yield on the benchmark fell to 4.22% yesterday, ending a six-day winning streak, as expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut returned to the forefront. The latest US consumer price data indicated that President Trump's tariffs have not yet caused any severe inflationary pressure on the US economy, reinforcing expectations of lower borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve.
Overall, interest rate futures indicate a strong consensus for a 25-basis point cut at the upcoming September Fed meeting, while two-thirds of the market expects three rate cuts by the end of the year. These expectations gained momentum this month after significant downward revisions to payroll data in the latest report, which dashed hopes for a strong labor market.
Global Gold Production
In other news, South Africa's gold production rose by 3.1% year-over-year in June 2025, marking the second consecutive monthly increase and surpassing the 1.5% rise from the previous month. This contributed 0.4 percentage points to the overall annual growth in mining production. However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, gold production fell by 2.5% in June, following a 0.2% decline in May.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to temporarily adopt a strategy of buying gold on every price dip.
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