My previous GBP/USD signal on 23rd July may have produced a losing short trade from the initial bearish rejection of $1.3548 that day. Unfortunately the bearish turn at $1.3584 did not set up until after that’s day’s London session, but would have been a very profitable short trade.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3436 or $1.3382.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3489, $1.3524, or $1.3537.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous GBP/USD forecast about one month ago that this pair was presenting a bullish double bottom at $1.3375 so a long trade after two consecutive higher hourly closes above $1.3550 would be a long trade entry, if there is no significant upper wick on the second candlestick. This did not set up precisely enough, but I was right about looking for a trade on the long side during the London session, although a short trade later from one of the higher key resistance levels would have been even better.
The technical picture now is quite different – we have had a bullish breakout from the bearish regression channel shown in the price chart below, but the price is failing to rise. However, there is a bullish double bottom holding at $1.3436.
A long trade from a bullish bounce off that level should be good for at least 25 or 30 pips or so. The problem is that it is a quiet Forex market with low volatility right now, which is typical for August.
There is little more to say than that. The US Dollar is still in a bearish long-term trend, which is another factor supporting my short-term analysis today.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the GBP or the USD.
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