Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3550.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3550.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
The GBP/USD exchange rate was flat on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming US consumer inflation data and reflected on last week’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. It was trading at 1.3427, up sharply from this month’s low of 1.3141.
US Inflation and UK Jobs Data
The GBP/USD pair rose after the Bank of England (BoE) delivered its interest rate decision last week. As was widely expected, the bank decided to cut interest rates by 0.25%, hoping that it will help to supercharge the economy.
However, the rate decision was closer than analysts were expecting, as more officials favored leaving it unchanged. These officials are concerned about the economy and the strong inflation. The most recent data showed that the headline CPI rose to 3.6% in June.
The GBP/USD exchange rate will react to the upcoming UK jobs data, which will show whether the economy is recovering. Economists expect the data to reveal that the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in June, while the average earnings without bonus fell from 5% to 4.7% in June.
The data will also show that the number of claimant count dropped from 25.9k in June to 20.8k last month.
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Meanwhile, the most important data to watch today will be the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data. Economists expect the report to show that the headline CPI rose slightly to 2.8%, while the core figure moved back to 3%.
These numbers are likely to continue rising as the market reacts to Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have prompted retailers to increase prices. While Trump has reached agreements with key countries like the UK, Japan, and South Korea, he has maintained a base tariff of at least 10%.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair has held steady in the past few days. It rose from a low of 1.3140 on August 1 to 1.3425, a key resistance as it was its highest point in September last year.
The pair is oscillating at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), where it has remained in the past few days. However, it has also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a popular bearish reversal sign. It has also retested the neckline, which is a continuation sign.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume the downtrend and retest the support at 1.3200. A move above the resistance point at 1.3500 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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