My previous BTC/USD signal on 25th August produced a small but profitable long trade from the bullish H1 pin bar which rejected the support level I had identified at $110,569.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $110,569 or $108,273 or $107,284.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $113,679 or $115,440.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast just three days ago that a bullish bounce off $110,569 could be good for a small long scalp, but a real bearish breakdown below $110,569 could be a good opportunity for a longer-term short trade, maybe on a swing trading time scale.
I was correct about the first assumption but wrong about the second, as the breakdown turned into a buying opportunity.
When you are wrong about areas of buying or selling, it makes sense to adjust your outlook accordingly. So, it seems Bitcoin keeps finding strong buying on significant dips, even though it has been trying and mostly failing to break to significant new highs for some time now.
I am long-term moderately bullish, and it looks like the next interesting intraday level which is likely to be reached will be the resistance level at $113,679. This could be today’s pivotal point.
I would be more confident in a long trade after a bullish breakout above that level, but I would not have strong confidence that it would be profitable over the short term. I have even less confidence in a short trade if the price fails there, but this could also be a potential day trade worth taking.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of US Advance GDP data at and Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm London time.
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