Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 105,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 114,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 114,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 105,000.
Bitcoin price crashed this week as demand from investors remained under pressure. The BTC/USD plunged to a low of 108,728 on Tuesday, its lowest level since July 9, down by over 12% from its highest level this year, meaning that it is now in a correction.
Bitcoin has been relatively volatile this week as focus remained on the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. In his closely-watched speech, he seemed to change his tune on interest rates, citing the ongoing softening of the labor market.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin reacted mildly to the ongoing tussle between the White House and the Federal Reserve after Donald Trump fired Lisa Cook, a governor. In her statement, Cook said that she would not resign and that she would sue in a bid to protect the neutrality of the Fed.
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A successful Fed governor firing would be bullish for Bitcoin because it has positioned itself as a better alternative to the US dollar, which has an infinite supply. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a fixed supply that cannot be modified.
It would also be bullish because Trump would increase his sway in the Fed and raise the odds of more interest rate cuts this year and in 2026.
While the Fed has hinted that a cut was coming, chances are that it will use a gradual easing process, much slower than what Trump wants as he has advocated for a 300 basis point cut.
The BTC/USD pair is also waiting for the upcoming NVIDIA earnings, which will provide more color on the state of the artificial intelligence industry, which has been driving the stock market in the past few years.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the BTC price has come under pressure in the past few days. This retreat happened after it formed a double-top pattern at 123,250 and a neckline at 112,000, its lowest point on August 1.
The BTC/USD has plunged below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, while top oscillators have continued moving downwards, with the two lines of the MACD indicator moving below the zero line.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next target level to watch being at 105,000. A move above the 50-day moving average at 114,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook and signal further downside to 100,000.
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