Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 125,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 112,000.
- Timeline: 1-3 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 112,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 125,000.
The BTC/USD pair remained on edge after hitting a crucial resistance level on Monday morning. Bitcoin was trading at 118,820 on Tuesday, down from this week’s high of 122,435. It remains about 60% above the lowest level in April this year.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe shows that Bitcoin price is sending mixed signals, a day after it neared its all-time high. On the positive side, the coin remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which have provided it with substantial support in the past few months.
Additionally, the coin is nearing its all-time high of 123,200, which is its all-time high. This price makes it a make-or-break level, meaning that a break above it will confirm a bullish breakout. Bitcoin has also found support at the strong pivot reverse of the Murrey Math Lines.
On the other hand, the BTC/USD pair has formed the bearish double-top pattern whose neckline is at this month’s low of 112,000. A double-top pattern is one of the most bearish chart patterns in technical analysis.
Worse, the pair has formed a shooting star candlestick pattern, which is characterized by a small body and a small upper shadow. This pattern is one of the most common bearish reversal signs in technical analysis.
Therefore, the next path of the least resistance will depend on whether it moves above the all-time high. A move above the resistance at $122,436 will confirm the bullish breakout and point to more gains, potentially to the ultimate resistance at 125,000.
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On the other hand, failure to move above that level will signal a potential reversal and raise the risk of it moving to the major S/R pivot point at 112,500.
Bitcoin Price Waits for the US Inflation Data
The next important catalyst for the BTC/USD pair is the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Economists expect the data to show that the headline and core CPI rose in July as the impact of tariffs continued to emerge.
The headline CPI is expected to come in at 2.8%, a slight increase from the previous month. A lower-than-expected jobs report will point to more gains among risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is still seeing strong appetite among investors as spot exchange-traded fund inflows rose on Monday. These funds have now added over $54 billion in assets since their inception.
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