Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6600.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6420.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6420.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6400.
The AUD/USD exchange rate remained in a narrow range on Tuesday after the latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and as traders reacted to the recent statement from Jerome Powell. It was trading at 0.6500, up from this month's low of 0.6425.
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RBA Minutes and Jerome Powell Statement
The AUD/USD exchange rate moved sideways after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. These minutes showed provided more color on the recent meeting in which officials decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the first time this year.
Officials hinted that the RBA may cut interest rates again as they downgrade the economic outlook. They also pointed to the recent macro data that showed that consumer inflation was moving downwards. Economists are now pricing in at least one more cuts this year.
The AUD/USD pair reacted to the recent statement by Jerome Powell, who pointed to an interest rate cut either in September or in the next meeting. He cited the weak labor market as job creation stalls and the unemployment rate rises.
The next important AUD/USD news will come out from the United States, where the Conference Board will publish the August consumer confidence report.
Economists expect the data to show that consumer confidence remained under pressure this month because of the deteriorating labor market and the steady inflation. A falling consumer confidence is a sign that the economy will slowdown in the current quarter.
There will be no major economic numbers from Australia this week. As such, traders will focus on the other macro numbers from the US, including the upcoming GDP and PCE reports on Thursday and Friday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate formed a double-bottom pattern at 0.6422, its lowest levels on August 1 and 21st, and a neckline at 0.6567. A double-bottom is one of the most common bullish reversal patterns in technical analysis.
The pair is also attempting to move above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the two line of the MACD are about to cross each other.
Therefore, the pair will likely rebound as bulls target the psychogical point at 0.6600. A drop below the support at 0.6425 will invalidate the bullish view.
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