After touching long-term lows early last week in which prices not seen since August of 2024 were traded, the USD/MXN reacted to nervous sentiment being sparked by President Trump with some upwards price movement.
Yes, nervous buying was seen in the USD/MXN last week in which the 18.75100 was tested late on Friday. However, taken within the bigger picture the USD/MXN does remain within the lower part of its long term technical ranges, when one year charts are glanced. Lows early last week near the 18.54000 vicinity were trading around values seen in the first week of August 2024.
Traders will have to remain alert to developing news regarding rhetoric from President Trump as he bangs on his tariff drums. But traders will also have to remain calm and understand that risk adverse buying of the USD in the broad Forex markets may develop, but the USD/MXN could likely remain in a known range. The downwards trend in the USD/MXN since April of this year has been significant.
Risk Events and Potential for Confusion
Technical traders will have to be extremely cautious in the short and near-term with the USD/MXN because a significant amount of trading sentiment is likely going to come via behavioral sentiment shifts. The U.S White House will mention Mexico directly as it speaks about tariffs. And U.S inflation numbers will be published Tuesday and Wednesday which will also cause outlooks to swirl as the Fed’s rate decision in a couple of weeks is pondered.
The USD/MXN is near the 18.68900 realm as of this writing with fast fluctuations being displayed, but importantly the lower part of the currency pair’s trading range remains intact. And this is the important part of the puzzle for USD/MXN traders, while upside price action was definitely seen late last week and remains a danger, the currency pair remains rather stable and low. Fast price action is not the end of the world as long as risk management is being used and risk events are known. Confusion could be caused by a lot of noise from the media regarding tariffs, but traders need to stay tranquil.
Lower Price Range and Speculative Trading
Day traders who want to trade today and in the near-term need to understand Forex and the USD/MXN are likely to be dynamic. The downwards trend produced in the USD/MXN may be tested with reversals over the next few days as risk events are digested.
- Financial institutions have leaned into a weaker USD centric landscape across Forex the past few months.
- Tariff deadline rhetoric will affect the sentiment, particularly if some large players become risk adverse, but this might not be enough to shift mid-term outlooks.
- Short and near-term USD/MXN trading will need strict risk management as reversals like are generated.
- Quick hitting trades are advised for speculators using solid entry points, stop loss and take profits tactics.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.70600
Current Support: 18.67400
High Target: 18.74300
Low Target: 18.65600
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex brokers in Mexico to choose from.