- The US dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday.
- As we are testing the 50 day EMA, the 1.38 level above is significant resistance.
- I think that's really what we're paying the most attention to. If we can break above there, then I think the US dollar is likely to go looking toward the 200 day EMA, where we see the 1.39 level coming into the picture.
Keep in mind the interest rate differential most certainly favors the US dollar and that is a big deal here. And it's also worth noting that we have just formed a double bottom near the 1.3550 level. So, I think things are starting to at least attempt to end up being a hard floor.
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We are in the Middle of Noise
I think at this point in time, we had a nice pullback and now we are in the middle of the noise. And I think given enough time, we will eventually see the US dollar climb against the Canadian dollar, especially as the correlation between oil and this pair isn't as strong as it once was, as the US produces so much now. With this being the case, I think you've got a situation where a little bit of patience probably goes a long way.
This is a market that has been very choppy, and it typically is because of so much cross border action. But at the same time, these two countries do not have an agreement as far as trade is concerned. And that of course continues to add a little bit of uncertainty here.
If the U S dollar starts to get a bid against multiple other currencies, I cannot help but think that the Canadian dollar does not stand a chance.
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