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S&P 500 Forecast: Slow Summer Grind Toward 6,400 Continues

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • The S&P 500 has risen a bit during the early part of the session here on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
  • And I think you've got a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is doing everything it can to continue the upward trajectory towards the 6,400 level.
  • If we pull back from here, 6,300 should be support with quite a bit of noise underneath offering a certain amount of buffer as well, probably all the way down to the 6,200 level.

Ultimately, I do think this market is going higher over the longer term, but it has been a grind. And part of what we are seeing is a situation where we are just simply doing summer trading. Summer trading can put you to sleep as you've seen over the last couple of weeks. And unless something changes quite drastically, I just don't see a scenario where we explode to the upside. A significant sell off would probably do wonders for this market, but we just don't have it. So with that being the case, be cautious, recognize that the trend is to the upside, but it doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to get big moves anytime soon.

S&P 500 Forecast Today 24/07: Slow Summer Grind (graph)

July and August CAN be Slow

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The month of July is typically fairly slow. The month of August can be worse. So do be aware of that. This is more of a directional trade. You don't really want to jump in and out on a day-to-day basis if you can avoid it. For example, if you can hold onto a CFD, then that might be the way to go. Just to give you an opportunity to at least make some profit. You will have to give it probably twice the time you normally would this time of year, that's nothing abnormal. The 50 day EMA currently hangs around the 6,100 level racing towards the 6,150 level, which I think is your floor in the market now based on market memory from it being a previous all-time high.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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