Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Strongly bullish.
- Today's Gold Support Levels: $3395 – $3368 – $3340 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3445 – $3470 – $3500 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $3460 with a target of $3370 and a stop loss of $3480.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3365 with a target of $3440 and a stop loss of $3330.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
As we have frequently predicted, the escalation of global trade and geopolitical tensions remains the most significant factor driving the continued gains in the gold trading market. This has indeed played out, with the gold price index rising to a five-week high, extending its gains today to the $3438 per ounce resistance level, where it remains stable at the time of writing this analysis. Adding to the market's positive momentum, according to gold trading platforms, is the continued decline in US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar, amidst ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations. With President Donald Trump's August 1st deadline for imposing tariffs fast approaching, concerns have grown about the potential failure of the United States and the European Union to reach an agreement.
Recently, reports indicated that EU diplomats have begun considering broader retaliatory measures should Trump follow through on his threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to meet his Chinese counterpart next week, hinting at a possible extension of the August deadline. Bessent also mentioned "a series of trade deals" with other countries, though he provided no details.
On the global central bank monetary policy front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 2.0% later this week after a series of cuts, while the US Federal Reserve's policy decision is scheduled for next week.
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Technical Indicator Movements Confirm Bullish Shift:
According to the daily timeframe chart performance and gold market analysts' forecasts, the gold price indicator's breach of the $3400 per ounce resistance has instilled confidence in bulls, preparing them for stronger upward breakouts if the market's gaining factors, as detailed in the analysis, continue. With the latest gains, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to a reading of 63, confirming a bullish shift and anticipating further gains before the indicator reaches overbought territory. This could occur with gold bulls pushing towards the psychological $3500 per ounce resistance. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are steadily turning upward.
A scenario for gold's decline would depend on gold prices returning to the vicinity of the $3371 and $3330 per ounce support levels, which are the most prominent bearish levels on the daily chart.
Trading Tips:
Traders are currently advised to buy gold on every price dip without risk, regardless of the strength of entry levels, and to distribute the risk across several trades.
US Dollar Selling Pressure Continues
According to forex currency market trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, has fallen below 97.40. It continues its retreat from its four-week high of 99 on July 17th, as financial markets continue to assess the latest US trade policy developments and their potential impact on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
In this regard, US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the administration prioritizes the quality of trade agreements over timing, downplaying the importance of the number of trade agreements to be concluded within the next two weeks. This could pave the way for strict tariffs to be imposed at the beginning of August.
At the same time, statements from selected Federal Reserve officials and the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes indicated that many members consider tariffs to be inflationary, pushing the US central bank to delay further interest rate cuts. To ease concerns, Bessent also indicated that the current tariff truce with China is likely to be extended next week before its expiration on August 12th.
Among the major currencies in the US index, the Japanese Yen rose, with expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will remain in office and overcome political instability.
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