Today Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Bullish.
- Today's Gold Support Levels: $3378 – $3365 – $3320 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3410 – $3465 – $3500 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $3455 with a target of $3330 and a stop loss of $3480.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3345 with a target of $3400 and a stop loss of $3320.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
As we predicted, the bullish trend for the gold price indicator remains strong, and the opportunity to return to the vicinity of the psychological $3400 per ounce resistance will not be far-fetched as long as global trade and geopolitical tensions continue to increase, coupled with further central bank purchases of gold bullion. According to performance across gold trading platforms, gold futures breached the psychological $3400 US dollar resistance at the start of the trading week, after a consistent performance for several consecutive trading sessions. Gold prices are now looking for a new catalyst to retest the record $3500 US dollar level. The gold trading market is currently benefiting from US dollar weakness and lower US Treasury bond yields.
Based on its performance, gold achieved weekly gains of 1%, pushing its year-to-date increase above 29%. In a similar performance, silver, gold's sister commodity, surpassed $39 US dollars at the start of trading. Overall, the white metal's price rose 2% last week, outperforming the yellow metal this year, registering a tremendous 34% increase.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to continue implementing the strategy of buying gold on dips for some time.
Gold Market and the Trajectory of Global Trade Wars:
Metal markets are closely monitoring trade developments as the August 1st deadline approaches. In this regard, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that the United States is on the verge of reaching a trade agreement with the European Union, but August 1st is the hard deadline for tariffs to be implemented. Lutnick added: "These are the two largest trading partners in the world, talking to each other. We're going to get a deal. I'm confident we're going to get a deal."
Declining US Dollar and Bond Yields Support Gold:
According to performance across trusted trading platforms, near-term support for the gold market comes from a weaker US dollar and declining yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the US dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies, fell by 0.65% to 97.84, from an opening level of 98.48. Overall, the index has fallen by approximately 10% this year, marking its worst first-half performance in over 50 years.
As is well known, a weaker US dollar is beneficial for dollar-denominated commodities, as it makes them less expensive for foreign investors.
In similar performance, US Treasury bond yields largely declined, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield falling by 6.9 basis points to 4.362%. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Overall, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve meeting next week. While investors expect US interest rate cuts this year, they anticipate the central bank to keep interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting this year. In this regard, Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, reiterated his support for interest rate cuts in July. However, futures markets expect the Federal Reserve to implement a quarter-point interest rate cut in September.
Will gold prices rise above $3,400?
The answer is yes, and according to gold analysts' forecasts, provided its gaining factors, as listed above, continue. These factors include increasing global trade and geopolitical tensions, more central bank gold purchases, and US dollar weakness. As seen on the daily chart above, the gold price indicator's surge towards the psychological $3400 per ounce resistance is steadily pushing technical indicators higher, as I predicted. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is near a reading of 60 and has more room for stronger gains before reaching the overbought line. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are turning upward.
The nearest resistance levels for the gold price indicator are currently $3420, $3455, and $3500 per ounce, respectively.
Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best XAU/USD brokers to check out.