Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Remains bullish.
- Today's Gold Support Levels: $3328 – $3310 – $3260 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3365 – $3380 – $3420 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $3380 with a target of $3290 and a stop loss of $3400.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3290 with a target of $3370 and a stop loss of $3250.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
The gold price indicator's performance shows clear neutrality, but the stronger bias remains upward, fueled by its stability above the $3300 per ounce resistance. Yesterday, bulls successfully pushed instantaneous gold prices above the $3366 per ounce resistance before gold settled around $3338 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis. Prices had risen as investors assessed a surge in US inflation and ongoing trade developments. According to economic calendar results, the US Consumer Price Index for June rose at its fastest pace in five months, indicating that tariffs may have started to influence inflationary pressures.
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For his part, US President Trump has called for interest rate cuts, but Federal Reserve officials have signaled caution, citing inflation risks. Markets are now awaiting the Producer Price Index report for further insight, due at 3:30 PM Cairo time. Meanwhile, trade concerns persisted after Trump announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods and stated that additional tariff notices would be sent to smaller nations. He had previously threatened 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1, but later indicated openness to talks.
Separately, concerning the gold market, the World Gold Council reported net gold purchases by global central banks of 20 tons in May, led by Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore. China also extended its buying streak in June, bringing total purchases since November to 34.2 tons.
Technically, based on the daily timeframe chart performance and gold analysts' forecasts, the overall outlook will remain bullish as long as instantaneous gold prices are stable above the $3300 per ounce resistance. The current movement supports the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) staying above the midline, which supports bulls in moving higher. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator lines are still in a neutral position. Global trade and geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and the performance of the US dollar will remain the most prominent influencing factors on the gold market in the coming days. Meanwhile, gold bulls are awaiting stronger catalysts to move towards the psychological $3400 per ounce resistance to confirm control. On the downside, the $3250 support level will remain an important station for bears to control gold's direction.
Trading Tips:
Monitor the factors influencing the gold market and buy on every price decline, but without risk, and to distribute their trades across multiple entry levels.
Stabilization of US bond yields
According to performance on trusted trading platforms, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond stabilized above 4.48% today, Wednesday, remaining near its five-week high. Investors are awaiting the latest US Producer Price Index data for more evidence of the inflationary impact of the Trump administration's tariffs. Yesterday, yields had risen after mixed US consumer inflation data prompted traders to scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Headline inflation matched expectations on both a monthly and annual basis, while core US inflation came in weaker than expected.
Adding to the cautious outlook, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated that the US central bank will likely need to keep interest rates steady for an extended period to ensure inflation remains contained amidst tariff-induced price pressures. Overall, financial markets are now pricing in a lower probability of multiple US interest rate cuts this year, with the likelihood of a September move hovering just above 50%.
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