- The euro rallied slightly during the course of the trading session here on Tuesday, as we are now trying to break above the 1.17 level.
- The 1.17 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying close attention to.
- Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where traders continue to look at this through the prism of a market that is trying to break higher, and you can even start to make the argument that we are in the midst of forming some kind of ugly bullish flag.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this market is obviously bullish, we have been in a major uptrend for quite some time, and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that the market continues to find buyers. Keep in mind that the 50 Day EMA sits just above the 1.15 level, and is rising, and I believe it offers a bit of a dynamic uptrend line. All things being equal, I think that buyers will continue to come in and try to pick up the euro every time it drops, because the selling of the US dollar is a major driver of what’s going on in the world at the moment, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would continue to see the euro be a bit of that beneficiary.
If we were to break below the 1.15 level, then I think the market really starts to unravel, perhaps looking to go down to the 200 Day EMA near the 1.11 level. I don’t think that happens very easily, but I will be watching to see if there is some type of sudden “risk off event” that makes the market behave like that. On the upside, if we were to break above the recent swing high, then I would leave that the EUR/USD pair would start working its way toward the 1.20 level above.
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