Despite relative strength in the Euro on rumours of a good tariff deal with the USA, the US Dollar is continuing to strengthen, driving the price lower with a clear short-term bearish trend.
My previous EUR/USD signal on 24th June gave a profitable long trade from the doji candlestick reversal at the support level of $1.1586.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1731, $1.1765, or $1.1787.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1667, $1.1630, or $1.1586.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD analysis a little more than two weeks ago, I thought that the EUR/USD currency pair was looking more bullish, with the price close to its multi-year high price, but there was also a chance of a bearish triple top. Fortunately, taking my bullish approach and looking for a long trade from a clear rejection of a support level was profitable.
The technical picture is quite different now, with the price descending from a multi-month high above $1.1800 which was made some days ago. The descent is orderly, with a clear pattern of both lower lows and lower highs. I have added a linear regression analysis indicator to the price chart below to give you an idea of the extent and shape of the bearish price channel, although I cannot say the channel is particularly symmetrical.
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We may be about to see this bearish pattern change, with a potential higher low having printed a few hours ago at $1.1700. The first test of this will be whether the price is now able to continue rising to get established above the recent high at $1.1731 which is also a clear resistance level. That will be a bullish sign if it sets up.
On the bearish side, if $11731 holds and the price soon gets established below $1.1700, that will probably be a good short trade signal.
I do not know whether to prefer a long or short set-up, as there is a long-term bullish trend here which tends to be reliable, but the US Dollar has definitely regained some ground in recent days as markets focus on President Trump’s tariff demands.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the Euro. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time.
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