EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Returning to an upward trend.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1690 – 1.1630 – 1.1570.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1780 – 1.1840 – 1.1900.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1640 with a target of 1.1880 and a stop loss of 1.1590.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1780 with a target of 1.1520 and a stop loss of 1.1840.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Based on recent performance, the EUR/USD pair successfully rebounded from the ascending trendline support that has guided its bullish path since last March, indicating continued upward momentum. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.1740, having bounced off the confluence area of the trendline near 1.1555. This ascending trendline aligns with dynamic support from moving averages, creating a confluence zone that has proven resilient against selling pressure. At the same time, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) appears to be above the 200-day SMA, confirming that the stronger path remains upward, and the ascent is likely to gain momentum from current levels. Furthermore, Fibonacci retracement levels provide clear upward targets for continued gains. The 38.2% extension at 1.18012 represents immediate resistance, while a sustained breakout could target the 61.8% extension at 1.1954.
The ultimate upward target is at the 76.4% extension around 1.2049, with the psychological level of 1.2202 identified as a full extension target.
Overall, the recent pullback towards trendline support appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend, potentially gathering new upward energy for the next bullish phase. Price action suggests that buyers are converging at these key technical levels, indicating strong demand for the Euro.
At the same time, the Stochastic indicator shows signs of recovery from the oversold region, reflecting renewed buying interest and suggesting a potential increase in upward pressure. Upward movement of the indicator from its extreme levels often signals seller exhaustion and buyers beginning to regain control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also found support in the neutral zone and appears to be trending upward, indicating a shift in momentum in favor of the bulls. The oscillator still has room to rise before reaching an overbought state, suggesting that this rally could continue for longer.
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Trading Tips:
Traders are currently advised to sell EUR/USD, but without taking risks, and to continuously monitor Trump's policies, which strongly and directly affect the currency market.
Will EUR/USD Rise in the Coming Days?
According to the view of forex trading experts, the EUR/USD pair may be influenced by the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate statement later this week, as traders remain uncertain whether the central bank will resume its monetary easing cycle or wait for another meeting. Today, the only announcements were the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index and US existing home sales, both due at 5:00 PM EEST.
Regarding future currency price forecasts, the EUR/USD exchange rate found support below 1.16 last week and rose to nearly 1.1670 on Monday, as concerns about Federal Reserve policy and its independence continued to destabilize the US currency. According to ING Bank's forecasts: "EUR/USD found support below 1.16. There are no strong indications of it falling much this week, and we expect stability at the 1.1550-1.1720 range it recorded last week." For its part, UoB Bank also expects a period of stability: "Today, we continue to anticipate sideways trading, most likely between 1.1590 and 1.1665."
Scotiabank added: "We expect a short-term range between the 1.1550 support level and the 1.1680 resistance level."
Overall, a break above this resistance level could be a catalyst for further gains. The issue of Federal Reserve policy and its independence will remain a key factor for the US dollar. Last week, US President Trump backed away from his immediate threat to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, which reversed the dollar's decline. There was market talk that US Treasury Secretary Bessent may have convinced Trump that any move to dismiss Powell would have a very destructive impact on US markets. Overall, traders have reduced the probability of US interest rate cuts in September to less than 40% after a generally strong series of data, and there are strong expectations for rates to remain steady next week, but Waller will likely oppose that. In this regard, MUFG Bank remains concerned about the underlying pressures on the Federal Reserve.
According to the bank, it's more than just Trump dismissing Powell. Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments suggest a potential political influence, as his calls for a July rate cut were clearer than in the past. Therefore, the US dollar will remain under significant threat if threats to Powell's position re-emerge and broader steps are taken to politicize the US central bank.
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