EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Moving within a counter-bearish channel.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1580 – 1.1500 – 1.1440.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1670 – 1.1730 – 1.1800.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1520 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop loss of 1.1440.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1680 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop loss of 1.1750.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The continued trade skirmishes between the US and the European Union have somewhat weakened currency investors' appetite for the Euro, leading to losses for the EUR/USD pair last week. These losses extended to the 1.1556 support level, breaking below the 1.1600 support which I frequently noted would support a bearish reversal. EUR/USD trading closed last week stable around 1.1625. The currency pair's losses coincided with the US dollar's strength over the past two weeks amidst Trump's threats to impose more tariffs. Financial markets are keenly awaiting August 1st, the date set for Trump's threats against global economies to take effect, particularly concerning the US conflict with the European Union and China.
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On the technical side:
According to the daily timeframe chart, EUR/USD has begun moving within a counter-bearish channel, supported by its movement below the 1.1600 support level. The pair's move towards the 1.1550 support pushed the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) below the midline, supporting a downward shift. Also, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are trending downward. However, keep in mind that technical indicators still have more time and need to test stronger downward levels before reaching oversold territory. Moreover, they might begin to signal this if bears successfully push towards the more critical 1.1440 support on the daily chart.
On the bullish side, bulls will not regain control over the EUR/USD direction without a return to the 1.1750 resistance level. Concurrently, the currency pair is not awaiting significant or impactful economic data from either the Eurozone or the United States. Therefore, investor sentiment will be the primary driver for the currency pair.
Trading Tips:
Wait for clarity on whether the EUR/USD price will reverse or not before considering a return to buying. The cautious anticipation will remain until August 1st.
Cautious Stability in US Stock Markets:
By the end of last week's trading, across stock trading platforms, US stock markets closed with cautious stability. Investors were assessing President Trump's pursuit of higher tariffs on the European Union against strong economic data and corporate earnings. In trading, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 mostly closed slightly lower near their record highs, while the Dow Jones fell 142 points, pressured by a 2.2% drop in American Express shares.
Reportedly, Trump is demanding no less than 15-20% tariffs in any deal with the European Union, which is working to finalize an agreement before the August 1st deadline. In terms of reliable company stocks, Netflix shares fell 5.1% despite exceeding revenue and earnings estimates, while Charles Schwab shares rose 3% due to strong results, and Chevron shares gained 1% after completing its $53 billion acquisition of Hess.
On the economic front, a University of Michigan survey in July showed a rise in US consumer confidence and a decline in one-year inflation expectations to 4.4%, its lowest since February.
Over the past week's trading, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.5% and 1.4%, respectively, while the Dow Jones closed slightly lower.
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