EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Beginning a bearish inclination.
- EUR/USD Support Levels Today: 1.1630 – 1.1570 – 1.1500.
- EUR/USD Resistance Levels Today: 1.1700 – 1.1780 -1.1840.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1570 support level with a target of 1.1700 and a stop loss of 1.1500.
- Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1750 resistance level with a target of 1.1600 and a stop loss of 1.1800.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Narrow range movement was the most prominent feature of the EUR/USD pair's performance at the start of this week's trading. Trading remained between the 1.1654 support level and the 1.1698 resistance level, settling around 1.1667 at the beginning of today's trading session on Tuesday. This comes amidst cautious market anticipation for the announcement of US inflation readings via the Consumer Price Index, which will be released at 3:30 PM Cairo time. Before that, from Europe, the important German ZEW index reading will be announced at 12:00 PM Cairo time. In addition, throughout the day, we may see statements from a number of US Federal Reserve policy officials.
Will the Euro Continue Trading Downwards?
Our latest forecasts for the new week's EUR/USD trading indicate that the Euro's continuous decline from its 2025 highs is at risk of turning into a deeper retreat. The pair has now returned to strong trendline support, as shown in the chart, which confirms that the continuous uptrend since February has seen upward and downward fluctuations, but the weakness has always been less profound than the previous upward surges. Certainly, a drop below the illustrated trendline does not mean the end of the trend, but it may mean a longer period of consolidation before its eventual re-launch, requiring more patience from those who may target a move towards the psychological resistance of 1.20.
Top Forex Brokers
Currently, some weakness is evident from the chart, which also shows that the EUR/USD pair has fallen below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting we expect further weakness in the coming days. Furthermore, a decline to the circular support level of 1.16 is our preferred position. Also, the underlying trends support the view that the euro price may lose further strength from now on.
Trading Tips:
Monitor the factors influencing the currency market, including US data and the future of US administration's trade and monetary policies.
Upside targets for the EUR/USD pair in the coming months.
In this regard, forex trading experts at Société Générale see the possibility of a near-term correction in the EUR/USD exchange rate, peaking at around 1.25 amidst renewed dollar losses. However, after initial stabilization, Credit Agricole expects the EUR/USD pair to decline to 1.10 by the end of 2026. During the week, the EUR/USD pair failed to make progress, settling slightly below 1.17 with guaranteed net gains.
According to the latest developments affecting the currency market, US President Trump threatened to impose 35% tariffs on Canadian exports starting August 1, but the dollar maintained its resilience. Trade developments will be closely monitored, as recent inflation data is also likely to be important for the Federal Reserve's US interest rate outlook. Overall, financial markets now feel a decline in the Federal Reserve's confidence in cutting interest rates at the September meeting. In this regard, according to ING; "The Federal Reserve is likely to postpone US interest rate cuts until the end of the year, despite escalating pressure from the President, but it may take larger steps when cutting."
Société Générale also continues to expect weakness on trade grounds. "It is not easy to construct a fundamental foreign exchange theory that argues that imposing import tariffs is beneficial for the recipient economy's currency." The bank added, "Given the historically strong dollar and the large holdings of US dollar assets by foreign investors, an administration that actively pressures the currency to depreciate has a good chance of achieving its goal, even though the economy is performing better than its peers and better than expected."
For his part, US Treasury Secretary Bennett indicated that the euro's gains were likely due to the administration's policies.
According to Société Générale's trading experts: "As for Mr. Bessent's opinion on the EUR/USD pair, I hope we continue to pause here for a while, but we are confident that the EUR/USD pair will head towards 1.20 later this year. We expect a peak around 1.25, in line with the peaks of 2018 and 2021, and we doubt we will see 1.30 in the foreseeable future."
Future Prospects for the US Currency
RBC Capital Markets remains pessimistic about the US currency; they stated, "We believe more US dollar weakness awaits us, this year and over the next few years. From our perspective, the currency will continue to decline for several years until it finally reaches a point where its overvaluation is corrected." They added: "Investors have, until this year, ignored a myriad of other long-term structural negatives, focusing on short-term cyclical positives." They expect EUR/USD to be at 1.24 by the end of 2026. For its part, Credit Agricole sees room for a Euro trading correction; the Euro remains the most bought G10 currency according to our positioning indicator, and may remain vulnerable to profit-taking spells on the back of potential data disappointments or more dovish ECB comments in the coming weeks. The bank also sees room for the dollar to regain support in the absence of reliable alternatives, while attractive yields and liquidity will keep foreign investors interested in the US currency.
Moreover, it also believes that the recovery of the US economy may attract renewed portfolio flows in 2026. Meanwhile, trade policy-related foreign direct investment flows may support the US dollar in the same year.
Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best forex broker list for you to check out.