Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 123,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 115,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 115,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 123,000.
The BTC/USD pair has remained in a tight range on Monday as the recent consolidation continued. Bitcoin price was trading at $118,460, much lower than the year-to-date high of 123,195. It remains about 60% above the lowest point in April.
Bitcoin wavered as third-party data showed that inflows that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped to $72 million last week, down from $2.39 billion a week earlier. It had inflows in the last seven consecutive weeks.
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The next important catalyst for Bitcoin will be the upcoming earnings by some of the biggest companies in the United States. Some of the most notable firms to watch will be companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Meta Platforms.
Most companies in the S&P 500 Index will publish their earnings this week. Historically, these earnings have an impact on Bitcoin prices.
The BTC/USD pair will also react to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%.
The US will publish more economic numbers, including the GDP, personal consumption expenditure (PCE), and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. These numbers are important because they influence the Federal Reserve actions.
Bitcoin price will also react to the August 1 deadline in which the US will implement more tariffs on some key countries. A prolonged trade war will likely have a negative impact on Bitcoin and other assets.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has remained in a tight range in the past few days. It has been stuck between the support and resistance levels at 115,000 and 123,200.
The pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern, which comprises of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. It remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bulls are in control.
Therefore, the bullish pennant pattern points to more upside, with the next point to watch being at 123,200. Such a rebound will be a 4% increase from the current level. A drop below the support at 115,000 will invalidate the bullish forecast.
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