Start Trading Now Get Started
Advertiser Disclosure
Advertiser Disclosure DailyForex.com adheres to strict guidelines to preserve editorial integrity to help you make decisions with confidence. Some of the reviews and content we feature on this site are supported by affiliate partnerships from which this website may receive money. This may impact how, where and which companies / services we review and write about. Our team of experts work to continually re-evaluate the reviews and information we provide on all the top Forex / CFD brokerages featured here. Our research focuses heavily on the broker’s custody of client deposits and the breadth of its client offering. Safety is evaluated by quality and length of the broker's track record, plus the scope of regulatory standing. Major factors in determining the quality of a broker’s offer include the cost of trading, the range of instruments available to trade, and general ease of use regarding execution and market information.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Outlook After RBA Pause

By Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child....

Read more

Bearish view

  • Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6400.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6590.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6590.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6400.

image

The AUD/USD exchange rate continued to consolidate on Thursday as market participants reacted to the Fed minutes, which came a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered its interest rate decision. It was trading at 0.6538, inside an ascending range it has remained in the past few months.

Top Forex Brokers

1
Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Read Review

The AUD/USD pair continued to react to the latest RBA interest rate decision. It left interest rates unchanged at 3.85%, catching many investors and analysts off-guard since most of them were expecting a 0.25% cut.

The bank, led by Michele Bullock, noted that time was on its side before continuing its interest rate cuts. It hopes first to receive the quarterly inflation data later this month to determine whether it is moving towards the 2.5% target.

Analysts expect the data to show that Australia’s inflation continued to move downwards. Besides, Australia did not respond to Donald Trump’s tariffs. Also, the country does not buy many goods from the US.

The AUD/USD pair also reacted to the latest Federal Reserve minutes of the last meeting. Officials hinted that the bank would maintain interest rates unchanged until they confirmed that Trump’s tariffs were not having a major impact on inflation.

The CME Fed Rate monitor tool estimates that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in its September meeting. Goldman Sachs analysts see three cuts this year and several more in 2026.

The view is that the existing data does not show these tariffs having a major impact on the country’s inflation. Looking ahead, the only data to watch on Thursday will be the upcoming initial and continuing jobless claims numbers from the United States.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a gradual rise in the past few months. It has moved from a low of 0.6345 to 0.6535, forming an ascending channel.

The pair has moved above the 50-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. However, the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have formed a bearish divergence pattern.

Therefore, th pair will likely have a bearish breakdown in the coming weeks, with the next key support level to watch being the psychological point at 0.6400. A move above the year-to-date high of 0.6590 will invalidate the bearish view.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? Here's a list of the best brokers FX trading Australia to choose from.

Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

Most Visited Forex Broker Reviews