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AUD/USD Forecast: Rebounds After NFP-Driven Drop

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • The Aussie dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, which is not a huge surprise considering that the non-farm payroll number came out much hotter than anticipated.
  • However, you'll see that the 0.6550 level has yet again come into the picture to offer a little bit of reaction.

The market pulling back the way it has and then turning around to rally into forming a hammer does suggest that the Australian dollar is ready to take off to the upside. The 0.67 level would be the initial target. And it is worth noting that while this market has been slightly positive over the last couple of months, it's been a little bit of an underperformer.

AUD/USD Today 04/07: Rebounds After NFP-Driven Drop (graph)

A Breakdown is Possible, but Unlikely

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However, if and when we finally see a break free, could really take off to the upside. If we break down below here, then the 0.65 level could be an area that a lot of people will be watching closely with the 50 day EMA racing towards it as well. The market continues to be noisy, mainly due to the fact that the Australian dollar is still following the Chinese economy and what's going on in trade relations between the United States and China, which have gotten better. That being said, more demand for Chinese goods could be around the corner as the jobs number was hotter.

So, I think this move makes a certain amount of sense. The bond market was all over the place during the day as well. So that comes into the picture. Ultimately, this is a market that I think does what it can to grind higher as short-term dips more likely than not continuing to offer buying opportunities going forward as the grind has been relatively reliable over the last several months.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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