Bullish Entry Points:
- Buy: From the 0.0250 – 0.0252 area if strong reversal candles appear on the daily timeframe.
- Increase Buy Position: If the price surpasses the 0.0270 level with a stable daily close.
- Targets: 0.0285 – 0.0300 – 0.0320.
- Stop Loss: 0.0240.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Sell: Near any weak rebound towards 0.0280 – 0.0290, provided clear signs of price weakness emerge.
- Sell: After breaking below 0.0250 and stabilizing below it with a daily close.
- Targets: 0.0235 – 0.0220 – 0.0200.
- Stop Loss: 0.0305.
The Turkish Lira (TRY) continues to show weak performance against the US Dollar (USD), settling at 0.0252 at the end of last week's trading, significantly lower than its opening price of 0.0371. This decline, exceeding 32%, reflects the pressing economic reality facing Turkey over the past 30 days, amidst high inflation rates and weak confidence in monetary policy. This performance occurred within a daily range between a high of 0.0391 and a low of 0.0252, reflecting the continued selling pressure on the Turkish currency.
Technical Analysis of the Turkish Lira Price:
A technical reading on the daily timeframe for the Turkish Lira against the Dollar pair shows a continuation of the sharp downtrend without any strong technical indicators suggesting an imminent reversal. The price's break of important support levels without effective resistance confirms the pair's entry into a "limitless decline" or what is known as freefall, where the price moves without clear historical supports.
Regarding moving averages, they consistently cross the price curve from above, indicating a weak upward trend and a loss of positive momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains entrenched in oversold territory, without successfully registering a clear technical rebound. This opens the door for further declines in the coming days if no internal catalysts emerge.
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USD/TRY Trading Signals:
In light of the technical and economic data, it is advisable to approach this pair with extreme caution, prioritizing selling trades as long as the price remains below the 0.0265 level. Buying opportunities remain conditional on the appearance of clear reversal signals on larger timeframes.
TRYUSD Price Forecast for the Coming Days:
The downtrend is likely to continue in the near term, especially if no signs of intervention from the Turkish Central Bank appear. If the price consistently breaks below the 0.0250 level, the wave could extend to 0.0230 or even 0.0200. Conversely, the price could see a limited rebound towards 0.0285 – 0.0300 if sudden monetary or political support emerges. However, the overall forecast remains negative unless the broader picture of the Turkish economy changes.
Tips for USD/TRY Traders:
Do not be misled by technical oversold levels or expectations of a quick rebound, as the Turkish currency continues to suffer from real pressures, both in terms of confidence and monetary policy.
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