The USD/MXN came within sight of the 19.00000 momentarily during its trading yesterday, and even though a reversal higher has taken place the currency pair is situated within the lower realms of its value.
As of this writing the USD/MXN is near the 19.07300 ratio with quick price action being seen. Yesterday’s low in the currency pair touched the 19.02100 vicinity, but then experienced a wave of buying. However, the move higher after yesterday’s depth was accomplished was not violent, which shows financial institutions believe the lower realms of the USD/MXN appear to be priced efficiently.
The USD has been leaning into a weak Forex trend since April against many major currencies. The USD/MXN went above the 21.00000 ratio briefly in early April. Financial institutions now appear to be more at ease with President Trump’s rhetoric, regarding tariffs and may actually be starting to look at economic data once again.
U.S Inflation Data Coming Wednesday and Thursday
The USD/MXN has seen a strong bearish trend emerge since early April, the currency pair is now testing values last seen in the middle of September 2025. The USD/MXN was trading at lower values in August, around the 18.70000 arear in the middle of that month. But before the currency pair can accomplish lower realms it is likely that additional firepower will have to be seen via economic data.
Tomorrow and Thursday the U.S will publish important inflation numbers via the CPI and PPI results. U.S inflation has been rather tame the past few months, and if tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index statistics meet expectations it could help bolster the notion that the USD should be weaker. But day traders must be careful, because the actions of global financial institutions may prove complex in the near-term.
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19.00000 Ratio an Inflection Point for the USD/MXN
The USD/MXN trading near the 19.00000 is quite significant. If the currency pair was able to hit the level and sustain value below it would certainly be a sign of heightened confidence about the Mexican Peso, this after a rather tumultuous year of results which has seen a sincere bullish move, followed by calm only restored over the past couple of months. Financial institutions likely remain cautious about the relationship between Mexico and the U.S regarding trade agreements, but they may be more concerned about the U.S Federal Reserve for the moment.
- Broad Forex price action seems to show large players believe the USD should be weaker mid-term and they are still leaning into selling positions, but short and near-term trading remains choppy.
- Day traders need to bet tactically.
- Some large institutions may have already bet that inflation will come in weaker than expected tomorrow.
- Which means the CPI data might need to come in below its estimate to potentially spur strong selling on of the USD/MXN.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.08600
Current Support: 19.06500
High Target: 19.10100
Low Target: 19.01200
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