The USD/BRL remains in the lower elements of its mid-term range and its ability to sustain lower values may provide opportunities for speculators looking to take advantage of the seemingly quiet conditions.
After gapping lower on Monday upon opening, the USD/BRL concluded yesterday’s trading essentially bouncing up against prices it saw nearly one month ago. The USD/BRL closed the day near the 5.6737 ratio which appears to be a middle ground when prices are considered via a one month technical chart. Highs near 5.7075 were seen on Monday.
While it is always tempting to lead with headlines which use dramatic words to describe trading conditions, the USD/BRL was in fact trading near the 5.6700 price level on the 17th of February. Yes, there have been fluctuations higher as nervousness has certainly been seen in the global markets and financial institutions have reacted to shifting sentiment, but the USD/BRL has used the 5.6500 to 5.6000 price levels as rather durable support since the middle of February.
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Support and Impetus as Traders Look Forward
Traders looking for the USD/BRL to achieve a new price realm to take advantage of a developing trend may have to wait. It appears financial institutions for the moment are convinced that equilibrium has been found in the USD/BRL. The USD has been showing signs of weakness the past couple of months and this may continue, so some traders may lean into the notion the USD/BRL can also move lower, but higher prices may have to be used to efficiently attack bearish targets.
The currency pair may need some additional impetus to achieve lower realms and this may not happen in the short and near-term. Trade discussions between China and the U.S are ongoing and have not produced an agreement yet. Perhaps if the two nations conclude a trade pact, this could help Brazil and the USD/BRL would be given some additional momentum. Brazil’s biggest trade partner is China and this certainly correlates into the sentiment and value of the Brazilian Real via financial institutions.
Wishing on Momentum in a Tight Marketplace
The USD/BRL was able to touch a low of nearly 5.6650 yesterday, but this ratio is still extremely close to the closing price, meaning traders have to be proactive via entry price and take profits orders to successfully maneuver in the currency pair via intraday speculation. Looking for sweeping price action in the USD/BRL is not a good place to start a wager in the meantime. President Trump still can move the Forex market with loud rhetoric, but financial institutions are growing more calm.
- The U.S will release jobs numbers on Friday and this may be a slight factor.
- Last week’s U.S inflation numbers met expectations.
- The 5.6065 to 5.6300 levels remain viable target for sellers, but yesterday’s price action was limited to the downside.
- Thus, traders may want to use slight movement higher to seek reversals lower to known ratios if they want to wager on downside momentum.
- currency pair may remain mired within the value range it has fought the past handful of weeks.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.6790
Current Support: 5.6680
High Target: 5.7050
Low Target: 5.6380
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