- During the Tuesday session we have seen the gold market selloff pretty significantly, as the cease-fire between Israel and Iran has taken some of the “risk premium” out of the market.
- If the piece holds, this could be one reason why gold may struggle a bit, but we have had a lot of technical reasons for the market to take a bit of a pause here anyway.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for gold is somewhat sideways over the last couple of months, but on the longer-term charts, the market is likely to continue to see some bullish pressure, as we had tested the 50 Day EMA during the session, and turned around to show signs of life. Even if we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA, then the $3200 level would come into the picture for potential support as it is the bottom of the overall short-term consolidation.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will have to reconcile whether or not we are breaking higher or lower, but in the short term, we are working off some of the froth, which makes a certain amount of sense considering we had gotten so overbought. If we can break above the $3500 level, things could change quite drastically, perhaps sending the market to the $3800 level based on the $300 “measured move.”
Geopolitics aside, gold has plenty of reasons to rally anyway, as there are central banks around the world buying it hand over fist, and of course interest rates are being cut by various central banks at the same time. This suggests that perhaps fiat currencies could lose some purchasing power, helping the case for gold overall. I think this is typically a quiet time of year for gold as well, but obviously, the next headline coming out of the Middle East could send this market screaming in one direction or the other.
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